Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to providing the most reliable service to our clients, there will be Server and VT App maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours:
9th of March 2025 (Sunday) 07:00-14:00 (GMT+2)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. During maintenance hours, you will not be able to log in to the VT App. We recommend avoiding the VT App for account management during this time.
2. During the maintenance hours, the price quote and trading management will be temporarily disabled during the maintenance. You will not be able to open new positions, close open positions, or make any adjustments to the trades.
3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. If you don’t want to hold any open positions during the maintenance, it is suggested to close the position in advance.
4. After the maintenance, the server time will be adjusted from GMT+2 to GMT+3

Please refer to MT4 / MT5 / VT App for the latest update on the completion and market opening time.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

On 7 March at 10am New York time, there are notable FX option expiries, particularly for USD/CAD at the 1.4350-60 levels. These expiries appear to have minimal technical impact, with the 100 and 200-hour moving averages currently at 1.4378-98.

The expiries may restrict any upward movement until the release of US and Canadian labour market data. After this data, fluctuations may continue to be influenced by the expiries before they roll off.

Additionally, there is an expiry for AUD/USD at the 0.6300 level, which also lacks technical significance but may attract attention until US trading and the non-farm payrolls are released.

Short Term Price Movements

The details outlined above indicate that short-term price movements may be constrained around key expiry levels, particularly for the US dollar against both the Canadian and Australian dollars. The expiry levels for USD/CAD near 1.4350-60 are unlikely to dictate broader trends, especially considering that both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages are positioned well above that range. Historically, price action in such scenarios tends to respect these levels until either the expiries roll off or a major catalyst shifts momentum. In this case, the upcoming labour market data from both sides of the border stands as that potential catalyst.

Until the employment reports are published, movements in USD/CAD could be hesitant, with price action repeatedly pulled back toward the expiry range. However, once the data is available, volatility might increase, particularly if reported figures deviate from expectations. Any divergence in job numbers or wage growth between the two economies could influence expectations around central bank policy, ultimately having a far greater influence than the expiring options themselves.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD’s expiry at 0.6300 suggests a similar situation. While this level does not align with any key technical indicators, traders may still observe price reluctance around it heading into US trading hours. The release of non-farm payrolls has historically triggered movements across multiple currency pairs, including this one, and any unexpected data may lead to an abrupt reaction. Before that point, the expiry itself could play a role in temporary price stabilisation.

Market Interpretation Ahead

What follows in the coming weeks will depend on how markets interpret the employment data and its implications. Should either report result in a reassessment of interest rate expectations, the effect could extend beyond a single trading session. For now, the observed expiries serve as short-term areas of interest, but attention will inevitably shift to broader factors once immediate influences dissipate.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

要点:

• 金は$2,913.87で取引を終え、日中の高値$2,914.82、安値$2,896.84を記録しました。
• 米ドル指数は依然として弱く、経済不安に対するヘッジとして金への需要が高まっています。

金価格は金曜日に堅調を保ち、オンスあたり$2,914近辺を推移し、トレーダーが今週の利益を確保したためです。貴金属は、貿易不確実性の継続と米国の経済データへの期待に支えられて、1.6%の週間増加を目指しています。

金は$2,913.87で取引を終え、前の水準から0.2%減少しました。一方、米国の金先物は0.5%下がって$2,911.90となりました。セッションの初めに金は高値$2,914.82を付け、その後トレーダーがポジションを調整する中、$2,896.84に一時的に下落しました。

米国大統領ドナルド・トランプは、今週初めに実施されたカナダとメキシコへの25%の関税を一時停止しました。しかし、貿易政策に関する不確実性は依然として金を支えています。

テクニカル分析

金（XAU/USD）は$2,913.87で取引されており、セッションで0.20%低下しています。価格は$2,896.84の安値を試し、買い手がサポートを提供しました。その後、$2,914.82の高値に達し、引き戻しました。移動平均（5、10、30）は混合トレンドを示しており、価格の動きは抵抗近くで安定しています。MACDは強気のクロスオーバーの兆候を示しており、金が$2,920を突破すると、買い手に有利に動く可能性があります。

さらなる上昇のためには、$2,920を突破することで、$2,930 – $2,940を試む可能性があり、そこで売り手が現れるかもしれません。下方向では、$2,891でしっかりとしたサポートがあります。このレベルを下回ると、$2,880に向けた下落の可能性があります。トレーダーは、米国の経済データ、連邦準備制度の政策信号、リスク感情に注目する必要があります。

金価格はさらに弱い米ドル指数によって支持されています。通貨市場の継続的なボラティリティは、トレーダーが依然として世界的な成長見通しに対して慎重であることを示唆しています。

連邦準備制度の見通しと雇用データに注目

連邦準備制度のガバナークリストファー・ウォーラーは、3月の会議での金利引き下げには反対であるとしつつも、インフレが引き続き減少すれば、年後半に緩和が行われる可能性があると示唆しました。

市場参加者は、米国の非農業部門雇用者数の報告に注目しており、2月の16万人の雇用増加が予想されています。データが予想を下回った場合、今後数ヶ月間の連邦準備制度の金利引き下げの根拠が強まる可能性があり、金が高騰するかもしれません。

トレーディングを始めましょう – ここをクリックしてVT Markets口座を開設

要点:

• 金は$2,913.87で取引を終え、日中の高値$2,914.82、安値$2,896.84を記録しました。
• 米ドル指数は依然として弱く、経済不安に対するヘッジとして金への需要が高まっています。

金価格は金曜日に堅調を保ち、オンスあたり$2,914近辺を推移し、トレーダーが今週の利益を確保したためです。貴金属は、貿易不確実性の継続と米国の経済データへの期待に支えられて、1.6%の週間増加を目指しています。

金は$2,913.87で取引を終え、前の水準から0.2%減少しました。一方、米国の金先物は0.5%下がって$2,911.90となりました。セッションの初めに金は高値$2,914.82を付け、その後トレーダーがポジションを調整する中、$2,896.84に一時的に下落しました。

米国大統領ドナルド・トランプは、今週初めに実施されたカナダとメキシコへの25%の関税を一時停止しました。しかし、貿易政策に関する不確実性は依然として金を支えています。

テクニカル分析

金（XAU/USD）は$2,913.87で取引されており、セッションで0.20%低下しています。価格は$2,896.84の安値を試し、買い手がサポートを提供しました。その後、$2,914.82の高値に達し、引き戻しました。移動平均（5、10、30）は混合トレンドを示しており、価格の動きは抵抗近くで安定しています。MACDは強気のクロスオーバーの兆候を示しており、金が$2,920を突破すると、買い手に有利に動く可能性があります。

さらなる上昇のためには、$2,920を突破することで、$2,930 – $2,940を試む可能性があり、そこで売り手が現れるかもしれません。下方向では、$2,891でしっかりとしたサポートがあります。このレベルを下回ると、$2,880に向けた下落の可能性があります。トレーダーは、米国の経済データ、連邦準備制度の政策信号、リスク感情に注目する必要があります。

金価格はさらに弱い米ドル指数によって支持されています。通貨市場の継続的なボラティリティは、トレーダーが依然として世界的な成長見通しに対して慎重であることを示唆しています。

連邦準備制度の見通しと雇用データに注目

連邦準備制度のガバナークリストファー・ウォーラーは、3月の会議での金利引き下げには反対であるとしつつも、インフレが引き続き減少すれば、年後半に緩和が行われる可能性があると示唆しました。

市場参加者は、米国の非農業部門雇用者数の報告に注目しており、2月の16万人の雇用増加が予想されています。データが予想を下回った場合、今後数ヶ月間の連邦準備制度の金利引き下げの根拠が強まる可能性があり、金が高騰するかもしれません。

トレーディングを始めましょう – ここをクリックしてVT Markets口座を開設

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

The dollar shows mixed movements as European trading approaches. The euro and yen are slightly stronger, while the antipodes lag due to subdued risk sentiment, despite US futures increasing after recent heavy selling.

The European Central Bank’s policy decision indicates a potential pause in April, with the possibility of future cuts depending on market conditions. The EUR/USD peaked at 1.0853 before settling below important levels, with 1.0800 and the 61.8 Fib retracement at 1.0817 proving to be key markers.

European Trading Outlook

European trading will be quieter with limited data, awaiting the non-farm payrolls release. Scheduled data includes Germany’s January industrial orders, UK house prices, France’s trade balance, and Eurozone’s Q4 final GDP figures.

With trading in Europe approaching, the dollar remains without a clear direction, as some currencies find strength while others continue to lag. The euro and yen have firmed, though movements lack force. Conversely, currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars struggle, weighed down by weak risk appetite. This is despite an uptick in US futures, which have managed to recover slightly following recent sharp declines.

A major focus remains on the European Central Bank, which has hinted that rates may hold steady at the next meeting in April. The potential for cuts exists but hinges on incoming economic developments rather than certainty at this stage. Markets reacted by briefly pushing EUR/USD to 1.0853, though it failed to maintain altitude. Price levels at 1.0800 and 1.0817 now stand out, the latter aligning with the 61.8% retracement on Fibonacci charts. These points are ones to watch as trading continues.

The coming European session is set for a slower pace, with no major shifts anticipated until the release of US non-farm payrolls data. Until then, attention will be on figures from Germany concerning January’s industrial orders, property price data from the UK, France’s trade balance, and final GDP numbers for the euro area in the previous quarter. These could provide near-term directional cues, though the primary market driver remains the upcoming report from the United States.

Market Sentiment And Expectations

For traders navigating this period, the signals are straightforward. Price action suggests that currency movements are reactive rather than displaying outright conviction. The euro’s inability to hold gains at higher levels underscores the need for further validation before resuming an advance. Meanwhile, the divergence between a recovering US futures market and underperforming risk-sensitive currencies signals that sentiment remains fragile.

With the ECB leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, any unexpected economic figures could influence expectations further. A weaker set of data from Europe may add to the argument for easing later in the year. Conversely, stronger numbers could challenge that view. Until payrolls data provides the next major catalyst, markets may continue oscillating within familiar ranges.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Heavy selling on Wall Street has left the market uncertain. Trump’s tariffs include exemptions that have sparked considerable discussion, yet the actions appear less impactful compared to his threats, resulting in further delays.

The Nasdaq is nearing a technical breakdown, suggesting that tech shares, which dominate the current market, are in a vulnerable state. Focus is now directed towards the upcoming US jobs report and its potential effect on market sentiment.

Challenger Job Cuts Report

The Challenger job cuts report could play a role in shaping payroll figures. Although a quieter mood is present for now, volatility is expected to resurface as the trading week concludes.

The downward pressure seen in US markets has left investors wary, with sentiment shifting as traders weigh the ongoing tariff developments. While exemptions have softened the immediate blow, the uncertainty surrounding future policy adjustments continues to affect confidence. Compared to the initial rhetoric, the latest measures appear restrained, though the potential for further trade actions is far from dismissed. That hesitation is reflected in market behaviour, where selling pressure persists despite moments of relative calm.

Tech stocks remain at risk, with the Nasdaq approaching levels that could trigger a sharper downturn. Should it breach key support, momentum-driven declines could accelerate, pulling the broader market with it. With these companies holding a dominant weight in major indices, any decisive move lower could spark a wider reaction. That concern has not yet led to widespread panic, though underlying fragility is evident. The upcoming US jobs report is expected to be the next major influence, particularly in shaping expectations around economic strength and policy moves.

Labour market data has played a greater role in shaping sentiment, with even secondary reports holding more sway than in previous months. The Challenger job cuts release could provide further insight into employment trends, potentially affecting payroll expectations. While trade concerns have monopolised headlines, shifts in labour market conditions have become equally important to broader market direction. Traders have so far responded cautiously, with price movements reflecting both uncertainty and hesitation ahead of key releases.

Market Volatility Outlook

For now, a quieter tone prevails, but that does not imply stability will hold. As the week nears its end, volatility is likely to reappear, particularly if new data challenges existing assumptions. With multiple factors pulling at sentiment, reactions could be more forceful than usual.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

要点:

• The Kiwi (NZDUSD)は約0.5712で取引され、わずかな押し目にもかかわらず、週の利益を維持していました。
• トランプの関税政策の変化は不確実性を生み出し、投資家がさらなる経済信号を待っているため、米ドルに重石となっています。
• 中国の追加の刺激策のコミットメントがキウイを支え続けています。
• RBNZ（ニュージーランド準備銀行）総裁オールの辞任が国内の不確実性を増しています。

NZDUSDは0.5710以上を維持し、押し目を克服

NZDUSD（ニュージーランドドル/米ドルペア）は約0.5712で取引され、金曜日のセッションでの軽微な後退にもかかわらず、週の利益を維持しています。貿易政策の不透明感と関税決定の変化に影響されて米ドルが弱くなっており、キウイをサポートしています。

テクニカル分析

NZDUSDは0.32%減少し、0.57117で取引を終了しました。オープニングは0.57299でした。価格は0.57406の高値と0.57104の安値をテストし、軽い下押し圧力を示しています。

移動平均線（MA 5,10,30）は下落トレンドを示唆しており、短期MAが長期トレンドの下に交差しています。MACD（12,26,9）のヒストグラムは負の領域にあり、下方向の勢いが継続していることを反映しています。

主要なサポートは0.57009にあり、抵抗は0.57595で見られます。サポートを下回るとさらなる売りが引き起こされる可能性がある一方、抵抗を超えると回復のシグナルとなる可能性があります。

米国の貿易政策が不確実性をもたらす – 重要な経済データに注目

米国ドルはトランプ大統領がメキシコとカナダからの自動車輸入に対する一時的な関税猶予を発表した後に弱含み、25%の関税を課すという以前の決定を覆しました。貿易政策の明確性の欠如が世界経済の安定性に対する懸念を引き起こし、市場は慎重な姿勢を続けています。

中国の刺激策がキウイの強さを支える

NZDは中国の新たな刺激策のコミットメントから追加のサポートを得ており、これは水曜日の年次業務報告に記載された財政措置を超えています。これにより、リスク感情が改善され、商品関連通貨に利益をもたらしています。

市場の見通し

NZDUSDはグローバルなリスク感情が堅調である限り、抵抗力を保持しています。しかし、強い米国の雇用報告は下方向の圧力をもたらす可能性があり、一方で弱いデータはペアを押し上げる原因となるかもしれません。

トレーディングを始めましょう – ここをクリックしてVT Markets口座を開設

The Japanese yen strengthened today as Japan is likely to officially announce an end to deflation, with USD/JPY falling to around 147.40. This movement impacted the Australian and New Zealand dollars negatively.

In trade developments, the US postponed tariffs on Mexico and New Zealand, prompting Canada to delay its second wave of tariffs while maintaining the first wave.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, spoke about the importance of clarity before moving interest rates, suggesting a preference for patience over pre-emptive action.

China Trade Data

China’s trade data showed a decline in exports, and February’s inflation data is expected to be released this weekend.

The yen’s appreciation signals a reversal of long-standing monetary conditions in Japan. For years, policymakers battled weak inflation, employing aggressive stimulus measures. Official recognition that deflation has ended strengthens expectations of policy tightening. A stronger currency impacts trade, weighing on exports. This shift affects broader currency markets, pressuring currencies tied to risk sentiment. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, sensitive to shifts in global trade and interest rate dynamics, reflected this adjustment.

Tariff changes introduce volatility for businesses relying on predictable trade policies. The US government’s delay in imposing duties on Mexican and New Zealand goods eases immediate concerns for exporters. Canada’s response—pressing forward with initial measures while pausing further tariffs—adds a layer of complexity. Companies adjusting supply chains now face uncertainty regarding future costs. Markets tend to react swiftly to policy signals, and adjustments in trade policy can force shifts in pricing, impacting profit margins.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Bostic’s comments reinforce the Federal Reserve’s stance on caution. He reiterated the need for clear data trends before adjusting interest rates, rejecting any urge for hasty moves. Investors looking for faster shifts in policy may be disappointed, while those wary of rapid rate changes find reassurance. The emphasis on patience supports stable borrowing conditions in the short term. This outlook influences expectations in fixed-income markets, with traders reassessing their positions based on the likelihood of extended steady rates.

China’s export data confirms pressure on global trade. Demand for Chinese goods declined, highlighting weaker consumption abroad. Supply chains remain under strain, particularly with global shipping routes still facing disruptions. February’s inflation print, due this weekend, may add further weight to the outlook. With past inflation surprises influencing monetary policy expectations, any deviation from forecasts could drive currency and commodity price adjustments.

These conditions shape decisions in weeks ahead. Markets react to policy shifts, economic data, and trade measures, with each development feeding into pricing mechanics. Opportunities appear where expectations diverge from reality, while misjudging policy moves invites risk.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams and Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman will take part in a panel discussion on the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report titled “Monetary Policy Transmission Post-Covid.” This event is scheduled for March 7, 2025, at 1545 GMT/1045 US Eastern time.

Currently, there is some uncertainty within the Fed. Fed’s Bostic noted that they are awaiting data to understand the effects of their policies amid inconsistencies from the new administration. He described the economy as being in “incredible flux,” which complicates predictions for the future. Bostic also indicated that tariffs would increase prices and reiterated the Fed’s aim to reduce inflation to the 2% target.

Impact Of Monetary Policy

Williams and Bowman will address how monetary policy affects the economy in the post-pandemic world. Their discussion arrives at a time when officials are assessing how interest rate decisions filter through markets, businesses, and consumers. Given that past rate moves take time to change financial conditions, hearing their perspective on these effects may offer insight into their thinking.

Bostic’s comments reflect the challenge policymakers face. The economy is moving in ways that do not fully align with expectations, making it harder to decide when to adjust rates. Instead of assuming previous trends will continue, officials appear to be acknowledging that data now carries more weight in shaping future decisions. He pointed out that tariffs are set to raise costs, reinforcing that inflation remains a leading concern. If prices face upward pressure from external factors, it could reduce flexibility in future policies.

While officials want inflation at 2%, there is still uncertainty over how quickly it will settle at that level. There are conflicting indicators—some suggesting prices are cooling while others hint at stubborn pressures. This makes upcoming reports highly relevant. Should inflation stay above the Fed’s comfort level, it may extend the time before any adjustments to borrowing costs. On the other hand, if data shows a faster slowdown, discussions on easing policy could gain more traction.

Outlook For Future Policy

In the next few weeks, expectations will likely shift with each key economic update. Officials have expressed caution about making any sudden policy moves. Waiting for clearer signs of where inflation and growth are headed appears to be a common theme. With this in mind, focus remains on how upcoming reports will influence sentiment.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.