Eurozone’s final GDP for the fourth quarter recorded growth of 0.2%, compared to the previous estimate of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. This revised figure, published by Eurostat on 7 March 2025, shows a small improvement in economic performance.

Recent adjustments to the euro area’s economic outlook may diminish the relevance of this updated data. Despite this, the figures indicate a continued, albeit modest, expansion in the region’s economy.

Challenges Persist

Although the revision to fourth-quarter GDP shows a slightly stronger expansion than first reported, the overall growth rate remains subdued. Persistent economic headwinds remain in play, and while this latest adjustment may be viewed as a minor positive development, it does little to alter the broader trajectory. The challenges that have defined the euro area’s economic conditions in recent months are still present, meaning expectations for the coming weeks should be carefully considered.

Labour market conditions, inflationary pressures, and monetary policy decisions all continue to weigh on prospects. With price growth in the eurozone still above the European Central Bank’s target, any renewed inflationary trends could complicate future policy choices. Wage dynamics and consumer demand remain areas to watch, as these factors could influence both economic resilience and any potential policy shifts from officials in Frankfurt. The latest data does not change the broader picture, but it does reinforce the cautious optimism that some observers have maintained.

As markets digest this revision, attention will likely shift towards upcoming indicators that could provide more timely insights. Industrial production figures, retail sales data, and inflation reports in the coming weeks will likely carry more weight in shaping expectations. Should further releases imply sustained growth or renewed softness, adjustments in positioning may follow. Economic sentiment remains fragile, and even marginal shifts in data points could prompt reactions, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding central bank policy.

Looking Ahead

For now, the reassessment of recent GDP growth offers a slight upward revision, but it does not represent a fundamental change. Moving forward, the reaction to upcoming reports will be key. Decision-making should account for the broader context, acknowledging that while this revision leans positive, it does not eliminate doubts about the durability of the recovery.

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A new Telegram group has been established for stock traders, offering timely alerts about unique stock opportunities, both buying and shorting. This service operates as a broadcast channel to avoid unnecessary noise, providing focused and actionable information.

The group supplies alerts for S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 trade ideas, featuring stocks with strong potential. Members can expect fast notifications on timely market entries and insights into effective risk management strategies.

Notable Trade Examples

Recent trade examples include Intel (INTC) with an 11.9% profit and Tesla (TSLA), which had a 2.9% gain in just 90 minutes. The service is emphasised as free, with no hidden fees, designed to keep traders informed without distractions.

The establishment of this new alert system presents a streamlined approach to tracking stock moves without the clutter often found in open forums. By functioning purely as a broadcast, this channel ensures that participants receive precise information without the discussion threads that can sometimes dilute focus. The priority here is speed and accuracy, two elements that tend to make a considerable difference when aiming to capture short-term movements in large-cap equities.

Given the focus on high-profile indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the alerts cater to those who closely monitor liquid stocks with strong momentum. These names often experience pronounced moves, which can offer compelling entry and exit points when coupled with disciplined risk management. The group prioritises identifying setups where risk-reward profiles align favourably, with notifications arriving in real time to allow swift execution.

Importance Of Timely Insights

The mention of recent successes, such as the return from Intel and Tesla, reflects the group’s intent to highlight timely opportunities that present measurable upside in constrained timeframes. An 11.9% gain in a trade, particularly from a stock as widely followed as Intel, suggests that the alert system has identified trends early enough to capture meaningful movement. Similarly, a 2.9% rise in Tesla within 90 minutes illustrates a capacity to pinpoint volatility spikes effectively—something particularly useful for those employing shorter-term strategies.

For those navigating the weeks ahead, keeping pace with developing trends in widely tracked stocks will continue to be essential. There is renewed attention on how liquidity and sentiment shifts affect price action, meaning prompt access to insights can play a vital role in execution. Awareness of short-term trade opportunities without distraction offers an edge, particularly for those prepared to act decisively when the right conditions arise.

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The euro has experienced notable growth, with EUR/USD rising 0.6% to 1.0854, marking its strongest weekly performance since December 2008. This shift brings the currency closer to the 1.1000 mark, distancing it from discussions of parity.

The 200-week moving average at 1.0872 is a key level to observe, as crossing it could lead towards 1.1000. However, there are potential challenges ahead, notably the German parliamentary vote on debt brake reform scheduled for 18 March.

German Parliamentary Vote Challenges

This vote requires a two-thirds majority, which presents difficulties due to party alignments. Current alliances may lack sufficient support, making the upcoming discussions important for euro sentiment in the coming weeks.

A push beyond the 200-week average has historically acted as a catalyst for further movement. Breaking through this level could foster greater confidence, potentially driving more traders to back extended gains. However, any failure to clear this threshold decisively may leave the euro vulnerable to retracement, prompting caution among those eyeing additional upside.

Beyond technical thresholds, political developments in Germany may hold sway over sentiment. The upcoming parliamentary vote on debt brake reform carries weight, as previous debates over fiscal policy have impacted investor outlooks. If lawmakers struggle to secure the necessary backing, uncertainty may dampen enthusiasm, particularly if discussions hint at prolonged political obstacles.

External Market Influences

External factors could also influence positioning. Shifts in Federal Reserve expectations remain a central variable, with recent data prompting adjustments in rate projections. Any hawkish signals from policymakers may boost the dollar, countering the euro’s upward trajectory. Conversely, indications of easing could sustain the euro’s momentum, reinforcing support near recent highs.

Market participants will need to balance these influences carefully. While upward pressure remains evident, any setbacks in Germany’s legislative process or unexpected moves from the Fed could interrupt gains. The ability to assess momentum in real time and respond swiftly to emerging signals will be important in the sessions ahead.

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European stocks opened lower today, reflecting a fluctuating week for regional equities. The Eurostoxx fell by 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX declined by 1.3% and France’s CAC 40 decreased by 0.8%.

The UK FTSE dropped 0.4%, Spain’s IBEX fell by 0.9%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB saw a decline of 0.6%. The push for debt brake reform has contributed to German stock performance this week, but negative sentiment from Wall Street’s heavy selling yesterday has affected market confidence.

Market Reactions And Sentiment

Currently, S&P 500 futures are modestly up by 0.3%, raising questions about potential market reactions ahead of the upcoming US jobs report.

The numbers speak for themselves. A broad decline across European markets is not a coincidence, and the overall mood remains cautious. With some of the region’s major indices shedding value this morning, the sell-off from the previous New York session has left a mark. Wall Street’s downturn spilled into today’s trading, and while S&P 500 futures are attempting to recover, uncertainty lingers.

Germany’s performance stands out. A sharper drop in the DAX compared to its European peers suggests that discussions around debt brake reform have influenced sentiment. Policy shifts matter, particularly when they lead to questions over fiscal discipline. Investors are weighing whether relaxation of debt constraints could boost economic activity or bring risks. That debate is not over yet, and the reaction in German equities reflects that.

France and Spain are not far behind in terms of losses this morning. The CAC 40 and IBEX have seen steady declines, showing that concerns extend beyond Germany. Italy’s FTSE MIB has also felt the pressure, though to a slightly lesser extent. Meanwhile, London’s FTSE 100 continues to keep its losses smaller than those of its European counterparts, but that does not mean it is immune to the broader trend.

Focus On The US Market

Beyond Europe, all eyes are on the US. Futures ticking higher may suggest a modest rebound attempt, but the bigger question is whether this holds. The upcoming jobs report in the US could shift expectations on interest rates, and traders will have to navigate the response. With employment data often driving bond yields and central bank outlooks, the implications stretch beyond equities.

Market participants should remain alert in the weeks ahead. Spillover effects from policy debates, moves in US indices, and macroeconomic releases will shape price action. Some shifts are already in motion, and with key data around the corner, reaction patterns will continue taking form.

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France’s trade balance recorded a deficit of €6.5 billion in January, up from the revised figure of €3.5 billion from the previous month. Exports decreased by 4.5%, while imports increased by 1.2%.

In December 2024, the trade deficit improved to €81.0 billion, significantly lower than the record deficit of €162.6 billion in 2022. The evolving trade situation may be affected by upcoming tariffs imposed by the US, which could influence future trade conditions.

Widening Trade Deficit

This widening of the trade deficit suggests that external demand for French goods weakened at the start of the year, while domestic businesses and consumers increased their reliance on foreign products. The drop in exports by 4.5% signals that firms faced a more difficult environment abroad, whether due to weaker purchasing power in key markets, currency fluctuations, or shifts in global supply chains. At the same time, the 1.2% rise in imports points to steady or rising demand within the country, which may be adding to cost pressures, depending on sourcing trends.

Looking at the broader picture, the narrowing of the annual trade deficit in December 2024 compared to two years prior shows that earlier imbalances in international trade flows have eased to some extent. The reduction from €162.6 billion in 2022 to €81.0 billion reflects adjustments in sectoral competitiveness, shifting consumption habits, or policy measures aimed at correcting past shortfalls. However, the recent deterioration in January could indicate that sustaining these improvements will not be straightforward.

With new tariffs from the US on the horizon, the outlook for cross-border trade will depend on how French industries adapt. Certain sectors may find themselves at a disadvantage if higher costs erode their ability to compete in export markets. For those reliant on imports, price shifts could influence purchasing decisions or supply chain arrangements. This added layer of complexity requires attention, as businesses reassess pricing strategies and sourcing options in response to policy shifts abroad.

Financial Market Reactions

Given these changes in trade flows, movements in key financial instruments may reflect shifts in sentiment as markets digest the latest data. As figures for the following months emerge, they will provide greater clarity on whether the January decline was an isolated development or the start of a broader trend. Those watching closely may find opportunities in the pricing of future expectations, particularly in responses to new trade policies that could reshape competitive positioning across sectors.

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European stocks are experiencing early declines, with Eurostoxx futures down by 1.1%. This decrease follows notable declines seen in Wall Street overnight.

German DAX futures have decreased by 1.3%, while French CAC 40 futures are down 0.7% and UK FTSE futures have fallen by 0.6%.

Market Volatility In Europe

Yesterday, European stocks had remained relatively insulated from market volatility, preparing for today’s adjustments. The DAX has faced volatility this week due to recent political developments in Germany. Despite the anticipated decline, the DAX is expected to finish the week with around a 4% gain.

These early declines come after a turbulent session in the United States, where markets closed notably lower. The pullback in European futures suggests traders are now reacting to broader concerns that had already weighed on Wall Street.

German equities, which have been particularly sensitive to political shifts, continue to show pronounced movements. Recent developments in Berlin have added uncertainty, contributing to the fluctuations seen earlier this week. Even with today’s retracement, the week’s net position for German stocks remains positive, highlighting the upward momentum observed in prior sessions.

France’s market has been more stable in comparison, with losses in CAC 40 futures appearing less pronounced. The reaction in France is more measured, as domestic concerns have not had the same immediate market impact. Similarly, UK futures are reflecting a retracement, though less severe than in Germany. London’s market has held relatively steady in recent days, with declines today following global sentiment rather than local factors.

Assessing Market Reactions

With European indices adjusting to overnight pressures, traders will need to gauge whether early declines will deepen or if buying interest will emerge. The DAX, even with today’s pullback, remains on course for a positive weekly outcome. The ability to sustain this upside by the week’s close will largely depend on how markets absorb further developments and whether support holds at key technical levels.

As these movements unfold, close attention will be required for any shifts in sentiment that could either extend losses or stabilise prices.

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Dear Client,

Starting from 9 March 2025, the trading hours of some MT4/MT5 products will change due to the upcoming Daylight-Saving Time change in the US.

Please refer to the table below outlining the affected instruments:

Notification of Trading Adjustment

The above information is provided for reference only; please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact  [email protected].

UK house prices in February have decreased by 0.1% compared to an expected increase of 0.3%. The average property price now stands at £298,602, with annual growth remaining at 2.9% from January.

Halifax attributes the slight price drop to changing dynamics in the housing market. As the deadline for stamp duty changes approaches, some previously accelerated demand for new mortgages is beginning to diminish.

Shifting Buyer Sentiment

This decline comes as many had been anticipating modest gains, but a combination of shifting buyer sentiment and broader financial pressures has resulted in a slight dip instead. While annual growth remains consistent with January’s figures, the monthly stagnation suggests demand is starting to be influenced by external economic conditions more than before.

Halifax’s observations align with this. With the clock ticking on stamp duty adjustments, some of the urgency that had been driving mortgage applications earlier in the year appears to be fading. This is not to say activity within the property sector is stalling, but rather that the pace at which buyers are willing to commit is tempering. The immediate rush to secure favourable terms is no longer at the levels seen in previous months, which is having a direct effect on pricing.

The Bank of England’s interest rate stance remains another key contributor to these shifts. Borrowing costs are still higher than the levels seen during periods of rapid house price growth, which naturally limits how much prospective buyers are willing or able to stretch their budgets. This restraint can already be observed in mortgage approvals, which have moderated compared to late last year.

As lenders continue adjusting their offerings in response to market signals, pricing strategies may see further recalibration. Sellers who had initially set valuations based on prior momentum may now be reassessing their positions, especially if demand softens further in the coming weeks. However, with annual growth holding steady at 2.9%, there is no suggestion that broader price trends are reversing—only that short-term adjustments are taking place.

Future Market Trends

For those active in financial markets, these figures give a clearer indication of how sentiment is shifting. If affordability constraints remain in play, further price moderation could follow. At the same time, any changes in monetary policy from the central bank will be watched closely, as they hold the potential to either reignite demand or apply additional pressure.

February’s minor contraction is not an isolated event, but the result of various forces working together. Mortgage availability, buyer confidence, and economic policy all continue to shape how values adjust, and each will remain influential in the weeks ahead. Halifax has already pointed to demand fluctuations, and their impact remains visible in the numbers. Whether this translates into a prolonged slowdown or merely a temporary readjustment will depend on how these factors develop further.

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完璧なエントリーポイントを特定し、すべての大きな動きを捉え、いつ買うか売るかを正確に知ることは、夢のようですね。それはおそらく、まさにその通りだからです。期待を裏切って申し訳ないのですが、誰も市場を確実に予測することはできません。

金融の世界を動かす要因は数多くあります。政治的混乱、自然災害、中央銀行の決定、市場感情など、ほんの一例です。真実は、テクニカル指標やファンダメンタル分析で次に何が起こるかを一貫して予測できるものはありません。

トレーダーが確実性を求める理由

人間はパターンと予測可能性を求めるようにできています。

だからこそ、私たちは雲の中に見慣れた形を指摘するのです。論理と構造は私たちを安心させます。X が起きれば、Y も起きると信じたいのです。これはほとんどのことに当てはまります。足に重いものを落としたら、痛いのはわかります。問題は、市場が固定されたルールに従わないことです。 

多くの新進トレーダーが陥りがちな罠は、聞こえのいい「完璧な戦略」、つまり勝利を保証する神話的な絶対確実なシステムです。彼らは指標を追いかけ、設定を微調整し、チャートを過度に分析し始めます。洗練されればされるほど、システムがより正確になると信じています。

やがて、彼らはどれだけ分析しても、短期的には市場は常に予測不可能であることに気づきます。すべての動きを確実に予測しようとするのは、シシュフォスの苦行です。

トレーダーの中には、どこかに 100% 正確な戦略が存在すると信じている人もいます。彼らは、80～90% の勝率を誇る戦略を探し、その秘密を解明したと考えます。しかし、ヘッジファンド マネージャー、熟練した専門家、トップクラスのアルゴリズム トレーダーなど、最高のトレーダーでさえ、勝率は 50～60% に過ぎません。トレーディング: 確率のゲーム

市場は正しいかどうかではなく、確率を管理することです。

60% の確率で表が出るように重み付けされたコインがあると想像してください。統計的に有利であることはわかっていますが、だからといって毎回勝てるわけではありません。3 回連続で裏が出るかもしれませんが、100 回以上投げると、表が勝つ確率は約 60 回になります。

トレーディングも同じです。利益の出る戦略であっても損失は発生します。なぜなら、100% 保証されたセットアップは存在しないからです。

勝率 60% の戦略を使用するトレーダーは、100 回の取引のうち 40 回は損失になることを理解する必要があります。問題は、ほとんどのトレーダーが短期的な損失に感情的に反応し、確率が発揮される前に堅実な戦略を放棄してしまうことです。

勝者でも負けることがある理由

強力な戦略であっても負けが続くことがあります。長く取引していると、次のような経験をすることになります。

• 5 回以上連続して負ける取引 (戦略が利益を生んでいても)。
• 何もうまくいかないような時期。
• 自信過剰になるほどの勝ちが続き、その後突然逆転する。

これが、リスク管理が勝率よりも常に重要になる理由です。2、3回連続で負けて精神と気力が崩壊したら、方程式のバランスをとる勝ちトレードにたどり着くことは決してできないかもしれません。

想像してみてください。カジノはすべての賭けに勝つわけではありませんが、何千ものゲームに対して優位性を持っています。時間の経過とともに、オッズは常にカジノに有利になります。

バックテスト: 魔法の水晶玉ではありません

バックテストは、トレーダーが過去のデータに対して戦略をテストする、価値のある戦術ですが、誤解されることの多い戦術です。過去の価格変動に合わせて戦略を過度に最適化すると、完璧に見えるシステムを作成できますが、常に流動的な市場に追いつくことはできません。

バックテストの目的は完璧さを見つけることではなく、戦略が長期にわたって維持される統計的利点を持っているかどうかをテストすることです。

「高精度」戦略の真実

勝率の高い戦略（80～90% の精度が簡単に利益を生むという信念に基づく戦略）は、普遍的に魅力的に聞こえますが、成功を保証するものではありません。より重要なのは、リスクと報酬です。

次のシナリオは、状況をよりよく表すのに役立ちます。

• トレーダー A は、トレードの 90% で勝ちますが、100 ドルをリスクにさらして 10 ドルを稼ぎます。1 回の大きな損失で、すべての利益が消えてしまう可能性があります。
• トレーダー B は、40% の確率でしか勝ちませんが、100 ドルをリスクにさらして 300 ドルを稼ぎます。勝率は低くても、トレーダー A より優れています。

勝率が 40% の戦略は、リスクと報酬の比率が十分に高ければ、非常に利益を上げることができます。この重要な要素を無視して、勝率に自分を縛り付けている可能性があります。

確率的トレーディングの考え方を身につける方法

絶対的なもの？ それを窓から投げ捨てましょう！

• 次に「この取引は勝つだろうか？」と自問自答したときは、考え方を変えて「自分のシステムに基づくと、この取引は成功する確率が高いだろうか？」と自問してください。すべての取引は、すべてかゼロかの賭けではなく、何百もの取引のうちの 1 つと見なすべきです。
• 勝率よりもリスクと報酬に重点を置く勝率が 50% しかない場合でも、リスクと報酬の比率が 2:1 であれば（100 ドルをリスクにさらして 200 ドルを稼ぐ）、利益を得ることができます。重要なのは、下振れリスクを管理し、確率が時間の経過とともに発揮されるようにすることです。
• 個々の取引ではなく、プロセスを信頼する。 毎回勝つわけではないことを自分に言い聞かせてください（先ほどの重み付けされたコイン投げの比喩に戻ります）。しかし、大規模なサンプル サイズでは、確率はあなたに有利に働きます。1 回の損失に対して感情に左右されるのではなく、視野を広げて長期的な一貫性に焦点を当ててください。

最終的な考え – 予測ではなく準備

覚えておいてください。誰も、たとえ最も有名なトレーダーであっても、絶対的な確実性を持って市場を予測することはできません。

VT Markets では、世界はあなたのものです。リアルタイムの市場データ、専門家の洞察、最先端のプラットフォームを自由に活用して、確率主導の戦略で取引しましょう。

Germany’s industrial orders for January decreased by 7.0%, contrasting with the anticipated decline of 2.8%. The data, published by Destatis on 7 March 2025, revealed a downward revision for December orders from +6.9% to +5.9%.

The fluctuations noted in this report primarily stemmed from a 17.6% drop in orders for other vehicle construction, which includes aircraft, ships, and military vehicles. These variations are commonly tied to military contracts or requests from Airbus.

Manufacturing Sector Concerns

This downturn in orders suggests weakened momentum in Germany’s manufacturing sector. Given that broader industrial demand often reflects wider economic conditions, this shortfall could have implications beyond the immediate figures. The revision for December, while still indicating growth, slightly tempers the previous optimism surrounding the sector’s recovery.

A sharp fall in orders for specialised vehicles, particularly in aerospace, naval, and military markets, points to volatility within these industries. Since these segments frequently depend on bulk contracts rather than steady, recurring demand, numbers can shift dramatically from month to month. The drop seen in January could stem from the absence of large orders rather than a structural decline, but the scale of the decrease is difficult to ignore. Airbus and defence procurement cycles are often unpredictable, and any gap between major contracts can lead to outsized figures like those reported.

With economic sentiment across the eurozone already under pressure, this release raises questions about whether manufacturing growth can be sustained in the coming months. Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, plays a central role in shaping expectations. Should February’s data indicate further weakness, it may reinforce concerns that industrial activity is struggling to maintain consistent expansion.

Market movements in response to this announcement will likely depend on how traders assess the longer-term effects. With external risks, including geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain adjustments, still affecting decision-making, sentiment could remain fragile. Those watching manufacturing-linked assets will need to weigh whether this dip points to a broader downturn or if it reflects short-term fluctuations typical in sectors driven by bulk orders.

Monetary Policy Considerations

Fluctuations of this scale can influence expectations around monetary policy as well. If softer industrial demand persists, policymakers could face additional pressure to consider measures that support growth. However, with inflation concerns remaining in focus, any potential response would depend on whether further economic data aligns with this trend.

The upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity. February’s data release will be closely watched to determine if January’s decline marks the start of a pattern or merely a temporary adjustment. Broader economic indicators from Germany and the eurozone will also play a role in shaping sentiment. Until stronger signals emerge, uncertainty may keep markets on edge.

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