Nomura predicts the European Central Bank will implement one more rate cut in 2024, specifically a decrease of 25 basis points in June. This is a revision from their earlier expectation of rate cuts taking place in both April and June.

Nomura now anticipates that the European Central Bank will lower rates just once in 2024, with a 25-basis-point reduction expected in June. This marks a shift from their earlier outlook, which had projected two cuts—one in April and another in June.

Economic Conditions And Inflation Trends

What this means is quite clear. The institution has adjusted its forecast after reassessing economic conditions, monetary policy signals, and inflation trends. In other words, factors that previously suggested a more aggressive pace of easing no longer seem as strong. Inflation data, growth patterns, and policy decisions continue to shape expectations, making such revisions necessary.

If the central bank moves as predicted, financial markets will react accordingly. Interest rate futures should adjust to reflect this revised stance. Yield curves might shift, with short-term rates remaining sensitive to any further guidance from policymakers. Trading strategies will need to take into account both the timing and scale of potential monetary easing.

There’s also the question of market positioning. Investors who had expected multiple rate cuts might unwind positions that were built on those assumptions. This can bring additional volatility. If incoming data contradicts Nomura’s outlook—or if central bank officials provide different signals—pricing could move swiftly in response.

Inflation remains a critical factor. Recent months have shown that while price pressures are easing, certain components remain sticky. If inflation slows more than expected, the case for rate cuts strengthens. If it proves persistent, policymakers could hold off for longer than anticipated.

Global Monetary Policy Influences

It’s also worth noticing that other central banks are working through their own policy adjustments. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have outlined their own rate strategies, and those decisions could influence expectations in the Eurozone. If global monetary conditions shift faster than expected, this might force a rethink of current forecasts.

Past market behaviour suggests that when traders face uncertainty over rate cuts, short-term positioning can become unpredictable. Whether assets are priced accurately for this potential change depends not just on central bank decisions, but also on broader macroeconomic trends.

The key now is monitoring the data. Economic reports ahead of June will offer further clues on the likelihood of this rate move. Market pricing can pivot quickly when expectations shift, and staying ahead of these changes will be necessary.

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In February, China’s exports recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, falling short of the anticipated 5%. This lower performance may impact market perceptions and trading activities related to Chinese goods.

The data reflects ongoing challenges in the global market and could influence economic strategies. Analysts may need to reassess forecasts based on these results as they review the broader economic landscape.

Impact Of Lower Export Growth

What we see here is an export growth rate that failed to match expectations, coming in at 2.3% instead of the projected 5%. This shortfall suggests weaker demand or disruptions in trade, both of which can ripple across multiple sectors. When exports do not grow as anticipated, it often signals hesitation among buyers or difficulties in supply chains.

The numbers matter because they shape how investors and traders position themselves. If export growth slows, market expectations adjust, and that can mean shifts in pricing, production plans, and even policy responses. Economic strategies may see some refinement as new forecasts take these latest figures into account.

Trade-sensitive positions should be watched closely, especially those linked to Chinese commodities or manufacturing sectors. The 2.3% growth still marks an increase, but it does not align with earlier predictions. That gap between expectation and reality can turn into volatility in the short term, particularly in derivative markets.

Market Reactions And Future Outlook

Traders will need to consider how these figures align with other global economic indicators. If this lower-than-expected growth ties into broader concerns—such as weakening demand from key trade partners or potential supply bottlenecks—then certain assets may react accordingly. Adjustments are likely as analysts and investors digest the implications of these trade figures.

A reassessment of forward-looking projections seems inevitable. The numbers do not just reflect past performance; they influence upcoming decisions in both policy and market activity. Short-term trading strategies may need to take this into account, especially for those focused on sectors directly linked to Chinese exports.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has shown strong performance, leading to losses for the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against both the US Dollar (USD) and JPY. JPY crosses are declining across various pairs.

Japan is set to announce the end of a prolonged period of deflation. Concurrently, China’s exports for January and February grew by 2.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 5.0%, which has contributed to market pressures.

Yen Strength And Market Reactions

The yen’s strength has placed downward pressure on the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, contributing to their declines against both the US dollar and Japan’s currency. Broad weakness in yen crosses reflects this shift, driven by fundamental changes in Japan’s economic stance alongside external influences from China.

Reports from Tokyo indicate that officials are preparing to formally declare an end to deflation. A shift of this magnitude is not just a domestic adjustment—it signals a departure from decades of stagnation, carrying direct implications for global currency markets. Any confirmation of this policy change could support a further appreciation of Japan’s currency, particularly if markets anticipate subsequent monetary tightening. Traders need to be aware of how such expectations influence positioning across multiple asset classes.

At the same time, Chinese trade figures for the start of the year have introduced additional pressure. The 2.3% increase in exports, falling well below the forecasted 5.0%, reflects weaker external demand and raises concerns regarding the broader economic trajectory. For markets that rely on China’s continued expansion, this shortfall has already dampened sentiment. As economic data continues to emerge, it will shape risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets, prompting adjustments in currency valuations and capital flows.

If Japan does confirm the end of its deflationary period in the coming days, yen strength could persist, particularly against currencies more sensitive to shifts in global growth expectations. Moves by policymakers in Tokyo warrant close observation, as any adjustments in policy signals may accelerate recent trends. Similarly, weaker Chinese trade growth places additional strain on regional currencies already under pressure.

Market Positioning And Future Outlook

The decline in yen crosses aligns with these shifts. Should Japan’s economic outlook improve further, traditional safe-haven demand for its currency may accelerate, especially if confidence in other regional economies wavers. Additionally, further updates on monetary policy could amplify market movements.

The next weeks hold key insights for those navigating these markets, particularly with continued developments regarding Japan’s inflation outlook and China’s trade performance. Market positioning should reflect these dynamics, considering both policy statements and emerging data releases.

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China’s year-on-year exports in February dropped to 3.4%, down from the previous figure of 10.9%. This decline reflects ongoing economic challenges and trade dynamics.

As the Australian Dollar remains subdued against the US Dollar, market participants are closely watching the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The USD/JPY pair is seeing a strong Yen supported by expectations of more Bank of Japan rate hikes, with the USD under pressure.

China Trade Challenges

Gold prices have edged lower ahead of the US NFP release, influenced by rising trade tensions and a weaker USD. Bitcoin experienced a 5% drop to $85,000 amid fluctuating trade policy sentiments in the US.

The year-on-year drop in China’s exports from 10.9% to 3.4% tells us that global trade conditions continue to weigh on the economy. We see such figures as a sign that businesses are pulling back on demand for Chinese goods or facing heightened restrictions overseas. The decline in exports is something manufacturers and policy makers in the country must closely monitor, particularly as external demand ebbs and flows. For the broader market, this points towards underlying weakness in global supply chains, which could affect expectations for commodities and currencies linked to China’s economic health.

The Australian Dollar remains weak against the US Dollar, meaning investors are not convinced about the country’s economic momentum. Eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could drive movements, particularly if job figures surprise in either direction. If the data comes in stronger than expected, the US Dollar might rise further, keeping the Australian currency under pressure. A weaker-than-expected report, on the other hand, might allow the Australian unit some breathing room. Traders should be prepared for volatility in this space, particularly those navigating short-term positions.

The drop of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen continues, with the Yen gaining strength based on growing confidence that the Bank of Japan is shifting towards a tighter monetary policy. This expectation is keeping pressure on the US currency, as markets reassess interest rate differentials between the two nations. It would not be surprising to see more movement in this pair if further signals emerge from Japanese policymakers. Some may attempt to front-run any decisions, anticipating more rate hikes ahead.

Gold prices are trending lower ahead of the US jobs report, a move that reflects the broader uncertainties in financial markets. Given rising concerns over trade policy and the direction of global growth, pressure on the US Dollar has added another layer to gold’s recent movement. Normally, a weaker greenback would support gold prices, but in this case, the precious metal is still facing headwinds from shifting risk sentiment. Those watching gold should factor in near-term data prints that could sway inflation expectations as well.

Bitcoin Market Volatility

Bitcoin has seen a 5% drop to $85,000, with shifting US trade policy views feeding into the recent volatility. Investors in digital assets remain highly sensitive to any regulatory or economic signals coming out of Washington, and the latest pullback aligns with uncertainty in the broader risk environment. This type of movement reminds us that Bitcoin remains tied to macroeconomic developments, despite often being viewed as a separate asset class. Traders must weigh not only the technical levels but also ongoing sentiment shifts when navigating the space.

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China will release its consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation data on Sunday, March 9, at 0130 GMT. The CPI is anticipated to return to deflation on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.

The CPI showed a downward trend from August to December 2024 due to weak consumer demand, before a rebound in January 2025 attributed to seasonal spending. In contrast, the PPI remains in deflation, highlighting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector despite government support measures.

CPI And PPI Trends

For the CPI readings: August 2024 was at +0.5%, September at +0.4%, October at +0.3%, November at +0.2%, December at +0.1%, and January 2025 rebounded to +0.5%.

For the PPI: August 2024 showed -2.3%, September at -2.5%, October at -2.9%, November at -2.5%, December at -2.3%, and January 2025 recorded -2.3%, indicating persistent deflationary trends over the months.

These inflation figures tell us a great deal about economic conditions and what could unfold in the weeks ahead. A return to consumer price deflation suggests that household demand remains subdued following January’s temporary uptick. The previous downward streak from August through December showed a consistent weakening in prices, with only a brief surge in early 2025 due to seasonal effects. That bump is now fading. If CPI data confirms expectations, policymakers may need to reassess how effective recent measures have been in spurring domestic consumption.

Producer prices, on the other hand, have stayed negative for half a year, pointing to persistent struggles for manufacturers. Despite government efforts to stabilise factory activity, industry players continue to face weak pricing power. The slight fluctuation in PPI readings over recent months suggests the sector isn’t seeing meaningful cost pressures, which typically indicates soft demand. Without a material shift, businesses may find it difficult to pass costs downstream, keeping margins thin across industrial supply chains.

Potential Market Impact

If deflation deepens, it could affect sentiment in broader financial markets, with knock-on effects beyond China’s borders. Investors watch these indicators closely, particularly given the weight of manufacturing within global trade. Furthermore, sustained price declines might reinforce expectations of additional monetary or fiscal intervention. Recent trends suggest that earlier measures have yet to generate lasting momentum across consumer and producer segments.

In the coming weeks, it will be essential to track not just the inflation prints, but also any adjustments in policy or liquidity conditions. A weak CPI number could fuel debate about further stimulus, while stubbornly low PPI figures might pressure industrial firms into price adjustments or cost-cutting measures. If external demand remains tepid, businesses dealing with trade-dependent sectors may experience prolonged earnings pressures.

All eyes will be on whether authorities take a more aggressive stance in response to weaker inflation data. Recent experience suggests temporary fluctuations have not been enough to shift broader price trends. Any policy responses will shape expectations going forward, particularly for those navigating price-sensitive sectors.

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Indonesia’s foreign reserves declined from $156.1 billion to $154.5 billion in February. This decrease reflects changing economic conditions within the country.

The drop in reserves may impact Indonesia’s ability to manage its currency and support economic stability. Ongoing monitoring of these figures is essential as they evolve over time.

Impact On Currency Stability

Indonesia’s foreign reserves saw a decline in February, falling from $156.1 billion to $154.5 billion. This shift points to movements within the country’s economy that traders need to consider. A reduction in reserves can influence how authorities manage currency stability and broader financial conditions.

For those watching markets closely, this change tells us something about how much flexibility decision-makers have in controlling exchange rates. Smaller reserves mean less ability to step in if the local currency swings too much. When reserves shrink, currencies can face added pressure, particularly if external factors like global interest rates or trade balances are also shifting.

This isn’t just about Indonesia’s own decisions. The country operates in a global system where outside forces—dollar strength, commodity prices, or investor sentiment—can all put strain on reserves. Traders who navigate price movements in financial contracts should stay alert to further updates. If reserves continue to shrink, questions may arise about whether authorities will need to adjust policy responses.

We’ve seen before that reserve declines often coincide with periods of heightened currency volatility. If key levels are tested, broader market reactions may set off additional movements. Traders must decide how to adapt—both in the near term and further out—depending on signals from policymakers and macroeconomic trends.

Implications For Investors

It’s worth factoring in whether this drop marks a one-off shift or hints at something more underlying. If future reports show ongoing declines, that could indicate continued intervention or external payments affecting overall reserves. On the other hand, if reserves stabilise, concerns could ease, allowing for a more balanced environment.

For those handling risk, this trend should not be ignored. If reserves keep moving lower, it could feed into expectations around central bank actions or influence how foreign investors position themselves. With that in mind, staying ahead of the next data release and possible monetary responses remains essential.

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Ethereum futures are currently priced at 2,167, following a structured trading framework influenced by volume profiles, VWAP, and liquidity dynamics. These elements assist traders in managing risk and identifying support and resistance levels more effectively.

Volume Profile tracks trading activity, with important aspects including the Point of Control (POC) and boundaries for 70% of trading (Value Area High and Value Area Low). High and Low Volume Nodes indicate areas of market interest for future price movements.

Understanding Vwap And Market Sentiment

VWAP is a tool used to assess fair pricing, showing potential reversal areas and trends within the trading day. It is essential for understanding market sentiment.

Key support for Ethereum futures is at 2,161, with additional levels at 2,150 and 2,111.5. Further support can be found at 2,063 and the range of 2,000 to 1,970, which may act as bearish targets.

Resistance levels to watch include the 2,198 to 2,200 zone and the point of control areas at 2,243.5 and 2,250. Monitoring historical liquidity and previous trading activity will provide insights on potential upward movements.

A strategy for day trading includes taking partial profits at identified levels, helping balance risk and reward. This approach caters to fluctuating market conditions and futures trading dynamics.

Key Levels And Trading Strategies

Existing data reveals how Ethereum futures are shaped by historical trading activity, measured pricing models, and liquidity shifts. These indicators, when viewed together, provide a structured way to gauge how price movements might unfold. Traders relying on these elements should use them to determine price ranges where buyers or sellers could step in with greater force.

The Point of Control is particularly relevant—it marks the price level where the highest volume of contracts has traded. That alone signifies a concentration of interest, making it a place where price reactions are more likely. Above and below this zone lie the Value Area High and Low, marking the territory where 70% of prior trading has taken place. Whenever price moves outside of these areas, it often signals a transition into either stronger momentum or reversion back into familiar zones. High and Low Volume Nodes also come into play—these indicate where past activity was either dense or lacking, setting potential inflection points for future moves.

Beyond volume-based assessments, VWAP offers a dynamic view of what may be considered fair value in relation to intraday trading activity. Prices moving sharply away from VWAP can point to stretched conditions that may later result in mean reversion or continued strength, depending on surrounding liquidity. In this context, combining VWAP reads with volume profile data helps us understand the dynamics of existing market participation rather than relying solely on historical price points.

Looking ahead, Ethereum futures have mapped-out levels where price may either stabilise or face renewed pressure. Support sits at 2,161, followed by deeper areas at 2,150 and 2,111.5. If stronger selling emerges, the drop toward 2,063 and the 2,000–1,970 region becomes more plausible. These lower zones are not just arbitrary figures but historically established levels where reactions have previously occurred.

On the other hand, resistance remains firm within the 2,198 to 2,200 range. Beyond that, the 2,243.5 and 2,250 levels mark areas where liquidity has gathered in past sessions. A breach of these could invite stronger buying participation, assuming broader sentiment supports the move. Watching how price responds to these barriers will offer clues as to whether Ethereum futures sustain upward momentum or revert into prior consolidation patterns.

Rather than seeking absolute certainty, day traders should focus on locking in partial gains at predefined intervals. This method helps adjust risk exposure while still taking advantage of favourable price movements. In a market that remains fluid, measured exits at key levels help avoid unnecessary exposure while maintaining flexibility.

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要点:

• 米ドル指数 (USDX) が104.07に下落し、米国の関税政策の変化が不安を引き起こす中、4か月ぶりの安値寸前にある。
• ユーロが1.0803に上昇し、ドイツの刺激策により欧州の債券利回りが急上昇したことから、4日間で強力な上昇を記録した。

ドルが弱まる中、市場は米国の雇用データを待つ

米ドル指数 (USDX) は金曜日に104.07で取引を終え、米国の貿易政策と成長見通しへの懸念が高まる中、引き続き下押し圧力がかかっていることを反映している。ドルはトランプ大統領によって発表された一時的な関税免除にもかかわらず、根強い下降圧力の中で踏ん張るのに苦しんでいた。

カナダとメキシコに対する自動車輸入関税の1か月延長はFX市場での反応は鈍かったが、全体的に米国の成長が鈍化する恐怖がドルの買い手を慎重にさせていた。トレーダーは、さらなる経済の冷え込みがあるかどうかを確かめるために、次の米国の非農業部門の雇用報告に注目を移していた。

テクニカル分析

米ドル指数 (USDX)は0.18%下落しており、引き続き弱さを反映している。価格は104.264で始まり104.076で終わった。高値は104.181、安値は104.049であった。移動平均線 (5, 10, 30) は下向きにスロープしており、現在の下落トレンドを確認しているが、最近の価格動向は安定化の可能性も示唆している。MACDはわずかに改善しており、売り圧力が和らいでいることを示している。

可能な回復のためには、USDXが104.20を上回る必要があり、その際には104.50-104.70の抵抗レベルに向かう可能性がある。下方向のサポートは103.70に見られ、これを下回ると103.50またはそれ以下に向かって損失が加速する可能性がある。トレーダーは連邦準備制度のコメント、米国の経済データ、世界的なリスク感情を監視するべきであり、これらはドルの方向性に大きく影響を与えるであろう。

米国の雇用報告に対する市場の期待

経済学者は、米国経済が2月に160,000件の雇用を追加したと予測しており、これは1月の143,000件と比較している。また、失業率は4.0%のままであると予想されている。

木曜日には、米国の連邦政府が発表した解雇件数が62,242件に達し、複数のセクターでの計画された解雇が172,017件増加した—これは過去2回の景気後退以来見られない数字である。

連邦準備制度の議長は、本日後ほど発言予定である。トレーダーは、2025年の
連邦準備制度の金利引き下げ77ベーシスポイントを織り込んでおり、市場は雇用報告を経済のさらなる減速の兆候として注視している。

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NZD/USD remains under pressure, trading around 0.5730 as market caution prevails ahead of China’s trade data release. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to rise to 160K in February from January’s 143K.

US Initial Jobless Claims recently dropped to 221K, which is lower than the projected 235K. Traders are keen on global trade developments, especially following Canada’s delay of retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

Chinese Stimulus And NZD Impact

Chinese officials have signalled potential further stimulus measures, supporting the New Zealand Dollar. Economic dynamics such as China’s growth impact NZD due to strong trade links.

Factors driving NZD include New Zealand’s economic health and dairy prices. Decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regarding interest rates further influence the currency’s value.

Macroeconomic releases impact NZD valuation, with strong growth generally leading to currency appreciation. Broader market sentiment also plays a role, as NZD tends to strengthen in stable periods and weaken during economic uncertainty.

The New Zealand Dollar remains under downward pressure, struggling to gain traction as investors exercise caution ahead of fresh trade data from China. With NZD/USD hovering near 0.5730, traders are weighing a blend of global economic signals, particularly the health of the US labour market and developments in Chinese policy.

Recent data out of the US showed that jobless claims have fallen more than expected, dipping to 221K instead of the forecasted 235K. This suggests resilience in the job market, which could reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance. Meanwhile, the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report is anticipated to show an increase to 160K for February, up from 143K in January. A stronger reading would likely provide some underlying support for the US Dollar, making it challenging for NZD/USD to recover ground in the short term.

A key external factor shaping the Kiwi’s movement lies in China’s economic trajectory. Given New Zealand’s strong trade relationship with China, any shifts in Chinese demand tend to have a direct impact on NZD. In that light, indications from Chinese policymakers that further stimulus could be introduced provide a counterbalance to the otherwise tepid sentiment surrounding the currency. Traders will be looking closely at upcoming Chinese trade figures for further confirmation of economic momentum in the region.

Domestic Factors And Market Sentiment

Domestically, the state of New Zealand’s economy continues to factor into currency dynamics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s stance on interest rates remains a focal point for traders, as expectations of future monetary policy shifts could shape NZD’s performance. Dairy prices also influence sentiment, given their role in the country’s exports.

Macroeconomic data releases and shifts in global risk appetite remain at the forefront when assessing NZD’s movement. When economic stability prevails, the currency tends to find strength; when uncertainty mounts, it comes under more pressure. With multiple interwoven factors at play, traders will be carefully monitoring developments on all fronts.

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Japan is set to declare an end to long-term deflation, according to Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa. This announcement may impact the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next interest rate increase, as inflation has remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for almost three years.

Akazawa noted that all four key indicators for deflation—consumer prices, GDP deflator, unit labour costs, and the output gap—are now positive. The output gap turned positive in the fourth quarter of last year for the first time in six quarters, suggesting demand is exceeding the economy’s capacity.

End Of Ultra Loose Monetary Policy

The BOJ ended its ultra-loose monetary policy in January, raising interest rates to 0.5%. The government’s cautious approach in officially declaring the end of deflation may reduce the need for more fiscal stimulus but could also be beneficial politically ahead of upcoming elections.

The Japanese yen is strengthening, now below 148.00, while the USD/JPY rate is around 147.50.

With Japan preparing to officially declare that deflation has ended, attention will shift towards how this shapes monetary policy decisions. Inflation has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, creating expectations for another increase in borrowing costs. Whether or not this leads to swift action depends largely on how policymakers interpret the data.

Akazawa’s observation that key indicators are all pointing upwards reinforces expectations that the BOJ may continue adjusting rates. Positive readings in consumer prices, the GDP deflator, unit labour costs, and the output gap all indicate that the economy has moved beyond its deflationary period. The output gap, which turned positive in the final months of last year, suggests demand is pushing against supply capacity—a condition that often precedes further rate hikes.

Market And Political Considerations

Since the BOJ abandoned its ultra-loose policy stance in January, the shift away from negative interest rates has started altering market expectations. The benchmark rate now sits at 0.5%, and further hikes could follow if inflationary pressures persist. That said, there are political factors at play. The government’s measured approach to formally acknowledging the end of deflation may be an attempt to manage both economic stability and electoral prospects. Reducing reliance on fiscal stimulus helps contain budgetary pressures, but easing off too quickly could create uncertainty in financial markets.

Meanwhile, the yen continues to strengthen. Dropping below 148.00 against the US dollar, the currency has gained ground with USD/JPY trading near 147.50. A stronger yen typically exerts downward pressure on import-driven inflation, which could, in turn, influence future rate discussions.

With these dynamics unfolding, market participants should remain highly attentive to BOJ statements and upcoming data releases.

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