The Indian Rupee (INR) remains unchanged on Friday, facing pressure from ongoing outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Conversely, declining crude oil prices may offer some relief, as India is a major oil consumer.

Traders are awaiting the US employment report, which includes Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, to gain insights into economic health and interest rate trends. Currently, the USD/INR pair maintains a bullish outlook, trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average.

Usd Inr Key Resistance And Support Levels

Initial resistance for USD/INR is at 87.53, with potential to reach an all-time high near 88.00, if sustained. Support levels include 86.48 and 86.14, with further support at 85.60.

The INR is sensitive to external factors such as crude oil prices, the US Dollar’s value, and foreign investment flows. The RBI’s interventions in forex markets play a vital role in stabilising the exchange rate and maintaining inflation at its 4% target.

Key macroeconomic influences on the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, trade balance, and foreign investment inflows. A higher growth rate boosts overseas investment, while a more favourable trade balance strengthens the Rupee.

Elevated inflation, especially compared to other countries, generally weakens the currency by impacting export costs. However, rising inflation may prompt the RBI to increase interest rates, which could attract international investors and benefit the Rupee.

With the Indian Rupee holding steady to close the week, traders are left assessing the push and pull of global and domestic pressures. The steady outflows from Foreign Institutional Investors continue to weigh on sentiment, especially given expectations that the Reserve Bank of India may lower interest rates further. At the same time, falling crude oil prices could ease some of this strain, offering at least a temporary counterbalance. Since India relies heavily on imported oil, any decrease in crude prices helps reduce the cost of purchasing fuel in US dollars, potentially limiting the Rupee’s downside.

Market attention now shifts to the upcoming US employment data, which will give traders a better sense of how the Federal Reserve might approach rate policy. The Nonfarm Payrolls report, alongside figures for unemployment and wage growth, remains a top-tier market mover, particularly for currency pairs linked to the US dollar. If US job growth surpasses expectations, we could see renewed demand for the greenback, pushing the Rupee lower. On the other hand, signs of softening in the labour market could reignite rate cut expectations, creating a different dynamic.

From a technical standpoint, the USD/INR pair stays above its 100-day Exponential Moving Average, signalling continued upside potential. Traders are watching 87.53 as the first key resistance level, with a break above this mark opening the door toward record highs around 88.00. Meanwhile, any downward movement finds initial support at 86.48 and 86.14, with further levels to monitor at 85.60. Price fluctuations within this range could continue until new macroeconomic data provides clearer direction.

Broader Economic Impacts On The Rupee

Broader factors shaping the Rupee’s trajectory extend beyond just interest rate moves and capital flows. As always, the Reserve Bank of India remains an active participant in the foreign exchange market. By intervening when necessary, often buying or selling US dollars to smooth volatility, the central bank plays a role in maintaining stability. Its commitment to keeping inflation near the 4% mark provides additional context for monetary policy decisions, as any prolonged deviation could prompt shifts in interest rate expectations.

Beyond central bank actions, overall economic performance remains an essential consideration. Faster GDP growth tends to attract more overseas investment, providing support to the Rupee. Meanwhile, maintaining a healthier trade balance—through stronger exports or lower import bills—can prevent excessive depreciation. Inflation dynamics also remain an area to monitor. If prices rise too quickly in India compared to other economies, the Rupee may weaken due to eroding purchasing power. Still, if inflation pressures lead to the RBI raising rates rather than lowering them, the currency could see indirect benefits as foreign investors seek better returns.

Over the next few weeks, the focus will be on the balance between these competing forces. Dollar strength, energy prices, and investment trends all continue to shape expectations, with each data release holding the potential to bring shifts in positioning.

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China’s trade data for January and February show a trade surplus of US$170.5 billion. Exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 5.0% and down from the previous 10.7%.

Imports declined by 8.4% year-on-year, contrasting with expectations of a 1.0% increase, and remaining unchanged from the prior figure of 1.0%. These results have contributed to a decline in the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Weakening External Demand

These figures paint a clear picture of weakening external demand and subdued domestic consumption. The slowing growth in exports suggests that global appetite for Chinese goods is not as strong as previously anticipated. This is particularly relevant given the downshift from the double-digit expansion seen in the prior reading. At the same time, the deeper-than-expected decline in imports points to fragile domestic demand, which does not bode well for economies reliant on China’s purchasing power.

For those of us analysing market movements, the Australian Dollar’s reaction aligns with expectations, considering its role as a proxy for sentiment surrounding China’s economy. A drop in imports suggests diminished demand for commodities, many of which are sourced from Australia. With resource exports being a major pillar of Australia’s trade, this has led to weakness in its currency. Additionally, the figures indicate that China’s recovery is encountering more hurdles than initially thought, which may lead to shifting policy discussions in Beijing.

Broader implications extend beyond trade flows. A weaker currency in commodity-linked economies can have ripple effects on inflation projections and central bank policies, influencing expectations around interest rates. Given that sentiment often moves ahead of official policy decisions, any future adjustments by central banks may already start being factored into market pricing.

Future Policy Adjustments

Looking ahead, the focus will remain on whether policy adjustments in China materialise in response to these lacklustre figures. If authorities take steps to boost demand, this could alter near-term currency dynamics. Meanwhile, any additional data releases will be closely scrutinised for signs of further weakness or resilience. Those navigating these shifts must account for policy signals, currency reactions, and economic releases, as each will provide further direction on where expectations are heading.

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• CL-OIL (WTI原油)は $66.342 で始まり、 $66.395で終わりました。最近の損失からのテクニカルリカバリーは控えめですが、OPEC+の供給計画に対する懸念は続いています。
• シェブロンのベネズエラライセンスの取り消しは短期的な不確実性を加え、操作は4月3日までに終了しなければなりません。
• キルクーク・ジャイハンパイプラインが再開する可能性があり、カザフスタンが生産を増やすかもしれず、原油価格に圧力をかける可能性があります。

原油は供給の不確実性の中でわずかに回復しました。

CL-OIL (WTI原油)は木曜日に1バレルあたり約$66.395で取引され、4日連続の下落後に安定しました。価格は狭い範囲で動き、高値$66.420と安値$66.110に達し、トレーダーはOPEC+の生産計画とベネズエラの潜在的な混乱を考慮しました。

テクニカル分析

CL-OILは0.08%上昇し、66.395 で終了しました。オープンは66.342でした。価格は66.420 の高値と66.110の安値をテストし、最近の水準付近での統合を示しました。

移動平均（MA 5,10,30）は中立的な姿勢を示し、短期の移動平均が長期トレンドの周りでフラットになっています。MACD（12,26,9）のヒストグラムは弱まる売り圧力を示しており、モメンタムの変化の可能性を暗示しています。

重要なサポートは65.21で、抵抗は66.80です。抵抗を上回るブレイクアウトがあれば、価格は上昇する可能性がありますが、サポートを保持できない場合は再び売り圧力がかかるかもしれません。

OPEC+、ベネズエラ供給リスクおよびその他の要因に注目

OPEC+は4月からの生産増加を確認し、小刻みに220万バレル/日の削減を段階的に終了することを再確認しました。同時に、シェブロンは4月3日までにベネズエラでの操業を停止しなければなりません。これにより原油流通が混乱し、短期的に世界供給に影響を与える可能性があります。

市場の見通し

原油価格は方向性を模索しており、トレーダーは供給の混乱と主要生産者からの生産増加を天秤にかけている状況です。需要が安定していれば、原油は短期的なサポートを受ける可能性がありますが、供給がさらに増加すれば、上昇を制限するかもしれません。

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• CL-OIL (WTI原油)は $66.342 で始まり、 $66.395で終わりました。最近の損失からのテクニカルリカバリーは控えめですが、OPEC+の供給計画に対する懸念は続いています。
• シェブロンのベネズエラライセンスの取り消しは短期的な不確実性を加え、操作は4月3日までに終了しなければなりません。
• キルクーク・ジャイハンパイプラインが再開する可能性があり、カザフスタンが生産を増やすかもしれず、原油価格に圧力をかける可能性があります。

原油は供給の不確実性の中でわずかに回復しました。

CL-OIL (WTI原油)は木曜日に1バレルあたり約$66.395で取引され、4日連続の下落後に安定しました。価格は狭い範囲で動き、高値$66.420と安値$66.110に達し、トレーダーはOPEC+の生産計画とベネズエラの潜在的な混乱を考慮しました。

テクニカル分析

CL-OILは0.08%上昇し、66.395 で終了しました。オープンは66.342でした。価格は66.420 の高値と66.110の安値をテストし、最近の水準付近での統合を示しました。

移動平均（MA 5,10,30）は中立的な姿勢を示し、短期の移動平均が長期トレンドの周りでフラットになっています。MACD（12,26,9）のヒストグラムは弱まる売り圧力を示しており、モメンタムの変化の可能性を暗示しています。

重要なサポートは65.21で、抵抗は66.80です。抵抗を上回るブレイクアウトがあれば、価格は上昇する可能性がありますが、サポートを保持できない場合は再び売り圧力がかかるかもしれません。

OPEC+、ベネズエラ供給リスクおよびその他の要因に注目

OPEC+は4月からの生産増加を確認し、小刻みに220万バレル/日の削減を段階的に終了することを再確認しました。同時に、シェブロンは4月3日までにベネズエラでの操業を停止しなければなりません。これにより原油流通が混乱し、短期的に世界供給に影響を与える可能性があります。

市場の見通し

原油価格は方向性を模索しており、トレーダーは供給の混乱と主要生産者からの生産増加を天秤にかけている状況です。需要が安定していれば、原油は短期的なサポートを受ける可能性がありますが、供給がさらに増加すれば、上昇を制限するかもしれません。

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained weak against the US Dollar (USD) for a second consecutive day, influenced by the USD’s steadiness. Traders are monitoring global trade developments as Canada delays retaliatory tariffs until April 2, following US President Trump’s exemptions for certain goods.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) projects economic growth to slow towards 2% by 2025. Recent Australian GDP data showed a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter growth in Q4 2024, exceeding expectations, while annual GDP rose to 1.3%.

Geopolitical Tensions And Trade Risks

Geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk, as China warns it is ready to respond to escalating trade tariffs. The US Dollar Index was at 104.10, experiencing pressure from concerns over slowing economic performance.

Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report is anticipated to show job additions of 160K for February, an increase from January’s 143K. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 221K, lower than expected, while the ADP Employment Change for February reported only 77K new jobs, beneath forecasts.

Australia’s trade surplus reached 5,620 million in January, surpassing estimates, driven by a 1.3% increase in exports. Building permits surged 6.3% month-on-month in January, marking significant growth.

The Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 50.6 in February, reflecting slower expansion in business activity. The RBA has noted that global trade uncertainty is at a historic high, likely affecting economic growth.

AUD/USD is trading near 0.6320, with key resistance levels at 0.6408 and 0.6440. Immediate support is at 0.6309 and 0.6299, with a potential decline to a four-week low of 0.6187 if these levels are breached. The AUD was weakest against the Euro.

Tariff Strategies And Economic Impact

Tariffs implemented by the US aim to bolster domestic industries, with mixed views among economists regarding their efficacy. Trump has indicated plans to use tariffs to support American producers leading up to the 2024 presidential election, focused primarily on Mexico, China, and Canada.

Given the recent movements, those trading in derivatives should prepare for a US Dollar that remains firm in the near term. With Washington’s economic strategy reinforcing domestic industries, demand for the greenback could persist. The weaker Australian Dollar reflects ongoing uncertainty, and with the Reserve Bank of Australia expecting slower growth, upward pressure on the currency appears limited.

We’ve seen GDP figures slightly outpace expectations, yet they remain far below levels that would suggest robust expansion. The housing market has shown resilience, as reflected by the notable rise in building approvals, but this is unlikely to offset broader concerns surrounding external trade conditions.

Trade relations remain a major factor, particularly with Beijing signalling it may react sharply to new tariffs. While this hasn’t yet resulted in direct action, it poses a risk that cannot be ignored. Should tensions escalate, confidence in global trade could falter further, impacting risk-sensitive currencies.

Labour market figures out of the US have shown mixed results. While jobless claims surprised to the downside, private-sector hiring came in markedly softer than predicted. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will provide a clearer indication of employment strength. A figure above estimates would likely bolster the US Dollar, while a weaker reading could temper its recent momentum.

Australia’s trade surplus was larger than anticipated, aided by stronger export performance. This suggests external demand remains relatively stable for now. However, given the ongoing policy shifts in North America, sustained performance here cannot be taken as a given.

Technical levels indicate immediate support around 0.6309 and 0.6299. If these fail to hold, a move towards 0.6187 appears likely, marking the lowest level in roughly a month. On the upside, resistance near 0.6408 and 0.6440 would need to be cleared before any meaningful recovery could take place.

The US administration remains committed to tariff strategies, with a focus on manufacturing and trade balances. With the presidential election drawing closer, further policy announcements could emerge. Any developments on additional trade measures or exemptions will be pivotal in shaping sentiment in the sessions ahead.

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On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.1705, an increase from the previous day’s fix of 7.1692 and higher than Reuters’ estimate of 7.2406. The PBOC focuses on maintaining price stability and supporting economic growth while implementing financial reforms.

The PBOC is government-owned and operates under the influence of the Chinese Communist Party. Its key policy tools include the seven-day Reverse Repo Rate, Medium-term Lending Facility, foreign exchange interventions, and the Loan Prime Rate, which affects market interest rates.

China’s Private Banking Sector

China allows private banks, with 19 currently operating. The most notable of these are WeBank and MYbank, backed by Tencent and Ant Group, respectively.

This latest move by the People’s Bank of China provides another example of how authorities are intent on steering the currency in a particular direction. By setting the central rate for USD/CNY at 7.1705, a slight increase from 7.1692 the day before, while still coming in stronger than market expectations, policymakers are sending a message. They are keeping their grip firm, trying to ensure the yuan does not weaken too sharply. The gap between the official fixing and what the market anticipated—7.2406, as projected by Reuters—shows that authorities are not letting depreciation get ahead of them.

With stability being a primary concern, the tools at their disposal remain well-defined. By adjusting the Reverse Repo Rate for short-term liquidity and influencing rates through the Medium-term Lending Facility, they manage borrowing costs carefully. Foreign exchange interventions also act as an implicit lever, preventing unwanted fluctuations in the yuan. The Loan Prime Rate remains the key benchmark, affecting borrowing costs across the economy. Taken together, these measures signal that authorities are keeping their policy flexible while ensuring economic growth does not come under unnecessary pressure.

A crucial aspect that should not be overlooked is Beijing’s tightly controlled financial system. Despite the presence of private banks—such as WeBank and MYbank, tied to Tencent and Ant Group respectively—the broader sector remains far from free-market driven. Policymakers maintain authority over the financial structure, which allows them to regulate liquidity and capital flows with precision.

Impact On Derivatives Markets

For those navigating derivatives markets, understanding the motivations behind these monetary policy decisions is essential. When authorities intervene in currency markets while simultaneously keeping interest rates stable, this creates opportunities, but also risks. A stronger-than-expected fixing often means spot prices react less predictably, leading to dislocations in futures and options pricing. We must assess how this controlled approach translates into volatility, as well as what it tells us about sentiment among policymakers regarding capital outflows and inflation concerns.

The next few weeks will likely see ongoing decisions that shape yuan movements, particularly as external pressures, such as global rate expectations, shift. Watching how authorities position the central rate in relation to market estimates will help in understanding their near-term targets. If the gap between the official fixing and market consensus continues to widen, it would indicate a determined stance to curb depreciation. On the other hand, should fixings come more in line with market pricing, this may suggest confidence in the currency’s self-regulation.

For now, the pattern is clear—policymakers are ensuring the yuan does not weaken too quickly, keeping financial conditions managed despite external variables. Those operating in derivative markets cannot afford to overlook the scale of intervention being applied and must factor in these strategies when positioning for the weeks ahead.

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China’s export growth is anticipated to have slowed in early 2023 due to disruptions from the Lunar New Year and increasing trade pressures from the U.S. Economists predict exports grew by 5% year-on-year, a decline from December’s 10.7% increase, while imports likely rose by 1%.

The trade surplus for January-February is expected to reach $142.35 billion. Combined trade data for these months is published by China’s General Administration of Customs to account for the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays.

Rising Trade Tensions

Trade tensions with the U.S. have escalated, with tariffs imposed on both sides. China has set a 5% economic growth target for the year amid plans to expand its budget deficit, raising concerns that ongoing tariffs may undermine its export capabilities.

China’s export growth has been losing momentum, and this is not by chance. The early months of 2023 brought multiple hurdles that worked against a stronger trade performance. The disruptions caused by the Lunar New Year slowed down manufacturing and shipments, an annual occurrence that tends to skew data during this period. But the more pressing challenge comes from abroad. Trade relations with the United States have become harder to navigate, with tariffs and restrictions weighing on industries that once thrived on easier access to global markets.

A decline from December’s export growth to an estimated 5% increase year-on-year signals more than just a seasonal dip. It points to a shifting international environment that is becoming more difficult for Chinese exporters. Imports, with a modest projected rise of 1%, suggest that domestic demand has not surged enough to counteract external weakness. A trade surplus of $142.35 billion for the first two months indicates resilience, but the underlying conditions shaping trade flows deserve close attention.

Beijing’s push for 5% economic growth this year comes with a commitment to expand fiscal spending, revealing a willingness to stimulate key areas to meet targets. However, tariffs remain a thorn in the side of exporters, potentially capping how much trade can contribute to overall economic expansion. The risk is that persistent pressure from Washington, coupled with efforts to diversify supply chains elsewhere, could leave Chinese firms facing a less favourable trading climate.

Adapting To Challenges

Maintaining competitiveness will depend not just on policy adjustments but also on how businesses adapt to these external forces. Those focused on international markets should be prepared for shifts in demand and pricing as trade barriers influence costs. Watching how Beijing balances its fiscal strategy with these external constraints will be critical in assessing the direction of trade through the months ahead.

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The Pound Sterling’s upward movement has paused after three consecutive days of gains, remaining below 1.2900 after reaching a year-to-date peak of 1.2923. The current trading rate for GBP/USD is 1.2885, marking a slight loss of 0.06%.

In North American trading on Thursday, GBP retains its position against the US Dollar as fears surrounding tariffs ease. This shift in sentiment has resulted in reduced risk premium for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD has seen recent fluctuations, trading around 1.2890 during earlier sessions on Thursday. Pressure on the US Dollar has intensified due to disappointing private payroll figures and shifting tariff strategies from the US administration.

Sterling’s Recent Performance

This pause in Sterling’s climb serves as a moment of recalibration, particularly after its stretch of advances against the Dollar. The exchange rate hovering just beneath the 1.2900 mark reflects a delicate balance in market sentiment. Sterling had gained momentum over the past few sessions, but a minor retreat suggests that traders are reassessing recent movements. The slight dip of 0.06% places GBP/USD at 1.2885, signalling that while the market remains optimistic, an immediate push higher is not guaranteed.

Sentiment in North America appears to be steering towards easing anxieties over trade measures. These concerns had elevated the Dollar’s appeal in prior weeks, but a softening in those fears is now stripping away some of its defensive strength. This scenario is reshaping positioning strategies and altering near-term expectations for the pair.

Earlier in Thursday’s session, GBP/USD traded around 1.2890, reflecting the day’s ongoing adjustments. A combination of weaker private payroll data from the United States and indications of shifting trade measures have created additional constraints for the Greenback. Weaker-than-expected labour market figures often lead investors to question the overall resilience of the US economy. If this perspective gains traction, the Federal Reserve could face added pressure to recalibrate its policy approach, which in turn affects the currency’s trajectory.

Market Considerations Ahead

For those navigating derivative positions, the short-term outlook requires close attention to employment data and trade-related updates. A softer labour market could feed into expectations for an eventual policy adjustment in the United States. Meanwhile, trade policy discussions, though less volatile this week, need monitoring in case further shifts materialise unexpectedly.

From our perspective, the market is showing an ongoing tug-of-war between economic indicators and policy developments. While Sterling has maintained its ground after reaching new highs, traders should be mindful of whether this is simply a pause before further movement or a sign of consolidation. If weaker data from across the Atlantic continues into the coming weeks, the argument for further pressure on the Dollar strengthens. On the other hand, a shift in rhetoric from policymakers could quickly recalibrate market expectations once again.

With all these elements at play, anyone with exposure to this pair should be prepared to adapt quickly to new information.

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Canada is currently assessing the implications of a recent executive order announced by the US, with uncertainties surrounding its coverage. Confusion exists regarding the extent of US-Canada trade affected, as the White House claims only 36% is included while acknowledging possible adjustments.

Additionally, the White House states that 50% of Mexican goods are covered, though contrasting remarks suggest nearly all goods may be impacted. Canada aims to evaluate the order thoroughly before formulating a response, particularly given its existing $30 billion in tariffs and another $125 billion expected in two-and-a-half weeks.

Market Considerations

This latest development introduces fresh considerations for market participants, particularly those engaged in pricing longer-term positions. Ottawa is seeking clarity on whether the announced measures align with preliminary assessments given by Washington. The disparity in figures—both in terms of Canadian and Mexican trade—suggests that further policy refinements could emerge in the days ahead. That, in turn, has prompted us to monitor policymakers for any shifts that may alter pricing dynamics.

What remains certain is that Canada’s $30 billion in imposed tariffs is set to rise sharply. The anticipated $125 billion increase over the next two-and-a-half weeks introduces a measurable degree of pressure, particularly for sectors already contending with persistent cost fluctuations. If existing projections hold, the total sum could surpass $150 billion within a short window, leaving little room for exporters to adjust.

For those watching price movements, this suggests near-term pricing adjustments should be considered. With Washington’s stance still appearing flexible, sudden shifts cannot be dismissed. That is especially true given that reported figures from the administration itself appear inconsistent. If trade restrictions expand beyond the lower-end estimates, that would further reinforce the likelihood of volatility across affected sectors.

Potential Countermeasures

As Ottawa weighs its response, it remains unclear whether countermeasures will be considered. While no formal reactions have been announced, history suggests that adjustments rarely materialise without reciprocal discussions. That leaves open the possibility of further trade recalibrations at the federal level, with direct implications for those focused on maintaining stable pricing structures.

The disparity in US estimates regarding Mexican goods also adds an additional variable. If the broader interpretation—suggesting nearly full coverage—holds, then secondary effects may be more pronounced. Supply chains that traverse multiple regions could see unintended knock-on effects if adjustments take place at varying speeds. Those engaged in multi-market strategies may find that hedging assumptions require further testing, particularly if changes to order volumes occur with little forewarning.

Given the speed at which these policies have emerged, any updates from officials in Washington or Ottawa will require timely adjustments. That remains true whether the current figures hold or whether new revisions enter the discussion. Either possibility would affect expectations, particularly in determining whether trade restrictions remain within the narrower interpretations or extend to wider portions of cross-border commerce.

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要点

• EUR/USDは1.0405近くで取引されており、ドイツの財政拡大がユーロの強さを後押ししている。
• 投資家はECBの決定を待っており、利下げが予想されているが、今後の政策ガイダンスには注目が集まっている。

ドイツの財政拡大がセンチメントを高める中、ユーロは安定を保つ

EUR/USDペアは1.0405近くで取引されており、最近の上昇を維持している。ユーロは、上昇するドイツ国債の利回りと政府支出増加の期待から支えられている。ドイツの提案された5000億ユーロ（5398.5億ドル）のインフラ基金と借入限度の変更計画は、楽観的な見通しを生み出し、欧州資産への投資家の関心を引き起こしている。

ドイツの30年債の利回りが最大25ベーシスポイント上昇した。これは追加の債務発行に対する期待を反映している。この動きは、ドイツが従来の借入に対する慎重な立場から移行していることを示している。投資家は、政府支出の増加が経済活動を刺激し、ECBによる積極的な利下げの必要性を減少させると予想している。

ユーロは0.3%上昇して1.0405ドルとなり、4.3%の週次上昇を受けて安定を保っている。市場参加者は、同日中のECBの政策決定を待っており、0.25%の利下げが広く予想されている。しかし、トレーダーは今後の緩和のペースと範囲に関するガイダンスに注目するだろう。

テクニカル展望

EUR/USDは強い上昇トレンドにあり、このセッションで0.14%上昇した。価格は1.07881でオープンし、1.08031でクローズ、1.08223の高値と1.07831の安値を記録した。移動平均（5, 10, 30）は引き続き強気のトレンドを支持しており、価格はそれらの上に維持されている。しかし、MACDはフラットになりつつあり、これが買いの勢いが鈍化していることを示唆しており、今後の統合局面が予想される。

もしペアが1.0825を上抜ける場合、さらなる上昇が1.0850-1.0870に向かう可能性がある。下方向では、1.0750にサポートが見られ、バイヤーがより深い後退を防ぐために介入する可能性がある。トレーダーはECBの政策動向、アメリカの経済データ、リスク感情に注目するべきであり、これらの要因がEUR/USDの次の動きを左右する可能性がある。

トレーダーは米国の非農業部門雇用者数報告を前に慎重であり、このレポートはFRBの姿勢にさらなる明確さを提供するだろう。もし米国の雇用成長が引き続き鈍化するなら、ドルはさらに弱くなり、ユーロの追加上昇を支える可能性がある。

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