要点:

• USDX（米ドル指数）が104.061に達し、4ヶ月ぶりの安値となりました。
• トランプ大統領がメキシコとカナダの自動車関税を1ヶ月延期し、カナダとメキシコの輸入品に25%の関税を課すという決定を受けました。
• 貿易の不確実性がトレーダーの信頼を弱め、USDに圧力をかけています。

貿易政策による不確実性でUSDが下落

USDX（米ドル指数）は104.061に下落し、4ヶ月ぶりの安値となりました。これはトランプ大統領がメキシコとカナダの自動車関税を1ヶ月延期したことを受けたもので、これにより市場に混乱をもたらしました。

変化する貿易政策は市場参加者の不安を助長し、ビジネスの感情と消費支出に影響を与えています。この貿易の不安定性は主に投資を妨げ、USDに圧力をかけています。

テクニカル分析

USDXは1.38%下落し、開幕時の105.541から104.084で終了しました。指数は104.341の高値と103.959の安値を記録し、強い弱気の勢いを示しています。

移動平均（MA 5,10,30）は持続的な下落トレンドを示し、価格はより長期の平均を下回っています。MACD（12,26,9）は依然として負の値ですが、ヒストグラムのバーは安定しており、売り圧力が緩和されている可能性を示唆しています。

主要なサポートは103.95で、レジスタンスは105.54です。レジスタンスを上回る反発があればさらなる上昇を引き起こす可能性がありますが、サポートを割り込むと追加の弱さに繋がる可能性があります。

市場の見通し

トレーダーはさらなる政策の変化と経済データを注視しています。もし不確実性が続く場合、ドルは圧力を受け続ける可能性がありますが、貿易の解決の兆しが見えれば感情が安定するかもしれません。

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) determines the daily midpoint for the yuan (RMB) under a managed floating exchange rate system. This arrangement permits the yuan to vary within a 2% range around the central reference rate.

Today, the PBOC established the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1692, which is stronger than the estimated rate of 7.2386. The previous close for the rate was 7.2345.

Moreover, the PBOC injected 104.5 billion yuan using 7-Day Reverse Repos at a rate of 1.5%. With 215 billion yuan maturing today, there is a net drain of 110.5 billion yuan.

Pboc Policy Signals

By setting the daily midpoint stronger than anticipated, the PBOC is sending a message about its stance on the yuan. When the central bank fixes the rate at a level firmer than market expectations, it often reflects a deliberate effort to reinforce stability or guide sentiment in a preferred direction. Market participants factor this into trading decisions, adjusting accordingly. A stronger fixing may discourage excessive one-way bets against the currency, signalling that authorities are maintaining a watchful eye on currency movements.

The yuan’s previous close at 7.2345 implies that the current fixing stands well below where the market settled yesterday. This means that if traders were expecting further weakness, today’s reference rate challenges that assumption. A gap between market closing rates and the official fixing can influence trading strategies, particularly for those managing short-term currency risk. If the deviation is large enough, it can even trigger shift in positioning.

Liquidity Impact

Meanwhile, liquidity conditions were also a focal point today. Although the central bank injected 104.5 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos, the maturing amount outweighed it, leading to a net drain of 110.5 billion yuan. When there is a liquidity withdrawal of this scale, short-term borrowing costs within the financial system can tighten, especially if demand for cash remains elevated. This can have knock-on effects on funding markets and capital allocation strategies.

Rapid shifts in liquidity often require adjustments in leveraged positions. Traders who rely on short-term funding may need to reassess their exposure, particularly if tighter conditions lead to increased funding rates. This type of adjustment can alter pricing dynamics across different markets, especially when combined with broader currency management actions.

This combination of a stronger-than-expected fixing and a liquidity drain suggests the central bank is actively shaping market conditions rather than allowing unchecked volatility. Traders attuned to these signals may find it necessary to recalibrate near-term positioning, particularly in currency derivatives and interest rate-sensitive instruments.

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Atsushi Mimura serves as Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, recognised as the ‘top currency diplomat’. The finance ministry oversees interventions in the Japanese yen (JPY) and Mimura would lead actions from the Bank of Japan if necessary.

He noted an uptick in protectionism, including tariffs, and stressed the importance of finding a balanced approach to tackle the downsides of globalisation without resorting to protectionist measures.

Growing Market Frictions

Mimura’s remarks underline a growing friction between global markets and national policies. Trade barriers, such as tariffs, create ripple effects that push investors to rethink their positions. The tension between economic integration and domestic priorities has nudged authorities into a more active stance, particularly concerning exchange rates.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance holds direct authority over FX interventions, meaning any major decision on the yen’s valuation would pass through Mimura’s hands. Currency traders have already been on high alert, monitoring any unusual movements that might hint at an official response. These interventions, if triggered, tend to result in sharp movements due to the size and speed of government actions. Such conditions present both risks and opportunities, especially for those paying attention to early signals.

Tariffs and other restrictions can indirectly influence foreign exchange markets by altering trade flows and supply chains. This can lead to shifts in capital allocation, creating changes in demand across asset classes. If businesses face higher costs due to new import taxes, inflation expectations may shift accordingly. Traders watching inflation differentials and interest rate projections would do well to factor these developments into their assessments.

Mimura’s emphasis on balance suggests a measured approach rather than an abrupt policy shift. Authorities have shown a preference for verbal warnings as an initial strategy, with direct intervention reserved for moments when market movements become disorderly. Past instances of yen-buying suggest that action generally follows prolonged, one-directional trends rather than short-term volatility.

Global Policy Implications

For those tracking these developments, attention should not be limited to Japan alone. Broader shifts in trade policy, especially in economies with deep links to Asian markets, could add further weight to future currency movements. Markets have already been whipsawed by abrupt changes in policy direction from major economies, making it increasingly necessary to stay ahead of official communications.

Each statement from policymakers carries meaning, especially when it comes from those with direct oversight of national currency stability. Reading between the lines of Mimura’s comments, it becomes apparent that patience is being exercised—for now. If shifts in trade and capital flows accelerate, responses may become more forceful. In the meantime, expectations will continue adjusting, influencing how capital moves in both the FX and broader financial markets.

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Donald Trump announced via his social media platform that he is collaborating with House of Representatives Republicans on a continuing resolution to maintain government funding until September. He mentioned that the proposal aims to facilitate tax cuts and spending reductions in the Reconciliation process while purportedly freezing spending for the current year.

Despite this assertion, there is skepticism regarding the likelihood of actual spending levels being frozen.

### Political Challenges Ahead

The assertion from Trump suggests a commitment to keeping government spending unchanged for now, but doubts remain over whether this will hold in practice. Historically, similar promises have faced hurdles, particularly when competing political priorities enter the discussion.

McCarthy’s faction in the House may back the resolution on the premise that it lays the groundwork for tax reductions and scaled-back expenditures, but there is no certainty that these goals will be achieved in their intended form. Political realities have often led to adjustments, especially when negotiations with the Senate and the executive branch unfold. If historical patterns persist, revisions and compromises might render initial proposals unrecognisable by the time they reach implementation.

Market participants should remain aware that spending expectations influence a range of financial instruments. Fixed-income markets, in particular, tend to react as fiscal policy discussions develop. Any deviation from the presumed spending freeze could lead to revaluations across debt markets, affecting yields and broader borrowing costs. Price movements in related areas may not be immediate but could gather pace as confidence in the resolution’s durability shifts.

Additionally, if the proposal moves forward with an emphasis on tax cuts, there will likely be growing assessments of how such measures align with broader revenue streams. Balancing lower tax receipts with reduced expenditure has historically proved difficult. Even if the resolution passes in its current form, subsequent debates may introduce new uncertainties about funding allocations. These uncertainties frequently lead to market volatility, especially as different factions push for adjustments.

### Impact Of Upcoming Elections

With the presidential election approaching, any fiscal commitments made now must also be viewed through the lens of political strategy. The willingness of various groups to compromise might shift depending on polling trends and broader campaign dynamics. Investors should closely track legislative progress and watch for any early indications that promised spending constraints may fade as negotiations progress.

The coming weeks will likely bring further developments as the finer details of funding plans are discussed. Sharp reversals in rhetoric are common when political realities set in. Participants should position accordingly, keeping in mind that expectations today may bear little resemblance to final outcomes.

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the daily midpoint for the yuan (renminbi) against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. This process occurs each morning and considers market supply, demand, economic indicators, and international fluctuations.

The yuan is allowed to trade within a band of +/- 2% around this midpoint, which can be adjusted by the PBOC. Should the yuan approach the band limits or show excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene by buying or selling yuan to stabilise its value.

Market Reactions To Midpoint Adjustments

Beijing’s monetary officials attempt to maintain an equilibrium between stability and market-driven pricing. When external pressures increase, adjustments to the daily reference rate can send a distinct message regarding intent. Market participants track this closely, as even subtle shifts hint at future policy direction. If the midpoint deviates from expectations, it frequently leads to recalibrations in positioning.

Recent shifts in the yuan suggest policymakers are keen on preventing unchecked depreciation. A weaker currency can bolster exports by making goods more competitive overseas, yet excessive weakness risks capital outflows and erodes confidence. Authorities remain particularly watchful when external influences, such as interest rate differentials with the Federal Reserve, amplify strains. Should heightened volatility persist, direct intervention becomes more likely.

Beyond immediate rate-setting, liquidity measures further reveal Beijing’s posture. Open market operations and reserve requirements influence funding conditions, affecting broader sentiment. Traders who account for these signals tend to avoid being caught on the wrong side of abrupt moves. When central bank policy leans towards loosening, short-term borrowing becomes cheaper, often influencing carry trades. On the other hand, restrictive measures can tighten leverage and dampen speculative activity.

Global Factors Influencing The Yuan

Shifts in the yuan’s pricing do not occur in isolation. The dollar, shaped by Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic conditions, plays an undeniable role. If US yields climb, capital tends to flow towards dollar-denominated assets, applying depreciation pressure on the yuan. Conversely, signs of dovishness in Washington can temper dollar strength, reducing strain on Beijing’s currency management. Traders who align their expectations with broader monetary trends stand a better chance of navigating upcoming adjustments.

All of this underscores the need to track multiple factors simultaneously. The currency band, intervention patterns, liquidity shifts, and global macroeconomics all weave into daily price action. Sudden moves often reflect a reaction to shifting fundamentals rather than isolated randomness. Being tethered to a singular data point or short-term fluctuation often leads to misreading the broader trajectory.

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The Japanese yen has weakened as the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has risen to 1.5%, marking its highest point since 2009. This trend in bond yields indicates a shift in Japan’s financial landscape.

The implications of these rising yields on the yen could affect its strength against other currencies. Ongoing market reactions to these developments are expected, prompting close observation of currency fluctuations and changes in market sentiment.

Impact Of Rising Yields

A 1.5% yield on the 10-year JGB signals that borrowing costs in Japan have increased. This suggests that investors are demanding greater returns to hold longer-term debt, potentially reflecting expectations of monetary policy adjustments or concerns over inflation. Since this yield has not been observed in fifteen years, it raises questions about how the market will adjust to higher funding costs and whether the trajectory of Japan’s monetary policies might shift accordingly.

A weaker yen often follows a rise in domestic bond yields when global factors drive capital outflows. However, the current trend is influenced by wider expectations of monetary divergence. While Japan’s bond yields are climbing, rates elsewhere—particularly in the United States—continue to shape capital movement. If US policymakers signal prolonged high interest rates, the yen might remain under pressure.

With the yen already depreciating, traders will be monitoring the Bank of Japan’s stance closely. Central bank actions influence market expectations, and any modification in rhetoric from policymakers like Ueda could affect short-term price swings. If authorities intervene verbally or directly in currency markets, volatility is likely to increase.

Market Reactions And Positioning

Meanwhile, broader sentiment will be shaped by external developments. If inflation data from major economies surprises markets, global yields may react, altering capital flows into and out of Japan. Should the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank shift tone, the yen’s path may be affected not only by domestic dynamics but also by external monetary conditions.

Market positioning will also be key. If large speculative bets against the yen continue to grow, sudden corrections could occur with any unexpected policy action. Factors such as government statements, economic data releases, and investor sentiment will be closely watched in the days ahead. Decisions made by policymakers and investors will determine how this trend unfolds.

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Roberto Perli, managing the Fed’s System Open Market Account, stated that the balance sheet drawdown has proceeded smoothly. While addressing the Money Marketeers of New York University, he noted that pausing quantitative tightening would not change the balance sheet’s continued reduction.

Perli mentioned that he does not expect a pause in the short term, even amid current uncertainties related to policy fluctuations. The ongoing debt-ceiling impasse in the US government remains a key challenge influencing these discussions.

Policymaker Perspectives On Quantitative Tightening

Perli’s comments suggest that policymakers see no immediate need to adjust the approach to quantitative tightening, even with lingering fiscal uncertainties. The balance sheet is expected to continue shrinking at the current pace, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s broader strategy to manage liquidity. As the debt-ceiling standoff persists, market participants must remain mindful of potential shifts that could alter short-term funding conditions.

Beyond liquidity management, attention will likely turn to interest rate expectations. Adjustments in monetary policy continue to unfold, and any developments here could carry implications for rate-sensitive assets. Given that policymakers still favour ongoing balance sheet reduction, short-term assumptions regarding liquidity availability should be made with caution.

Perli’s remarks also suggest that he sees stability in current processes, meaning abrupt changes remain unlikely. That said, investors should not discount the possibility of volatility should unexpected dislocations arise in money markets. Past disruptions illustrate how quickly short-term borrowing conditions can change when external pressures mount.

Debt Ceiling Considerations And Market Impacts

The debt-ceiling debates introduce another variable that requires constant monitoring. As lawmakers remain in negotiations, markets could see heightened sensitivity to political discussions. A prolonged impasse has historically led to liquidity shifts, forcing adjustments in positioning. Given this, those with exposure to short-term funding vehicles must consider possible strain if resolution appears uncertain.

Policy signals indicate that no immediate pause is expected, yet external influences could test this stance. In the past, periods of increased Treasury issuance following debt-limit resolutions have impacted reserves in the banking system. This presents a potential consideration for those engaged in rate-based instruments. Being prepared for sudden liquidity shifts remains a necessity.

The pace of balance sheet reduction may remain unchanged for now, but external shocks have the potential to add pressure. Monitoring official statements—both from policymakers and fiscal authorities—will be essential for assessing the probability of unexpected liquidity adjustments.

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Germany is considering relaxing its fiscal rules to access funds for military spending and establish a 500 billion euro off-budget infrastructure fund.

However, MUFG has expressed caution regarding future tariff actions from the US, specifically mentioning that Trump’s stance could impact the euro’s strength.

Euro And Fiscal Policy

This raises the question of whether the current shifts in fundamentals are sufficient for EUR/USD to surpass its current range trading patterns.

If fiscal constraints are loosened, Germany will have more flexibility to allocate capital without breaching debt limits. This would not only provide additional resources for defence but also open doors for extensive infrastructure improvements. A fund of this scale could stimulate various sectors and influence long-term growth trends, particularly if investments are directed towards transport, energy systems, and digital development.

At the same time, concerns over future trade policies in the United States introduce an external factor traders must assess carefully. MUFG has pointed to the possibility of renewed tariff measures, specifically highlighting how a shift in leadership could bring a fresh round of protectionist policies. Such decisions have historically influenced currency valuations, and any return to aggressive trade barriers may weaken confidence in global trade stability. For the euro, this introduces potential downside risks, particularly if European exports are targeted.

With these factors in play, market participants will need to reassess whether broader economic conditions justify a break beyond the current EUR/USD range. Structural shifts in German fiscal policy may provide long-term economic benefits, but the pace at which these adjustments impact the real economy will take time to materialise. Meanwhile, trade policy remains an unpredictable element that could fuel sudden moves in currency markets if rhetoric escalates.

Market Considerations

Considering these developments, traders should maintain a close watch on upcoming policy signals from German authorities, as delays or amendments to fiscal plans could influence sentiment. Similarly, clarity on US trade approaches in the coming weeks will play a role in shaping expectations for global flows. These two elements together hold the potential to either reinforce or disrupt the stability observed in recent exchange rate trends.

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要点:

• 金は1オンスあたり$2,920を超えて推移しており、安全資産への需要とドル安が支えとなっている。
• 市場は米国の非農業部門雇用者数のデータを待ち、FRBの利下げの軌道を見極めようとしている。

米国の貿易政策の変動の中で金が強化される

金価格は木曜日に1オンスあたり$2,920を超え、記録的な高値に近づいており、弱い米ドルと貿易関連の不確実性が安全資産への需要を高めている。ドナルド・トランプ大統領からの最近の政策変更は市場の不安を増加させ、金をしっかりと支えた。

トランプは米国の自動車メーカーに対して新たに課せられたカナダおよびメキシコの輸入に対する25%の関税からの1ヶ月の一時的免除を発表し、業界に少しの安堵をもたらした。関係者は貿易協定の要件を満たせばカナダのエネルギー輸入に対する10%の関税を撤廃する可能性を示唆した。しかし、米国、カナダ、メキシコ、中国が関税戦争を続けているため、全体的な状況は依然として不透明である。

進行中の貿易緊張は中国が最新の米国の課税に異議を唱えるために世界貿易機関（WTO）に修正された相談要求を提出する原因となっている。影響を受けた国々からの報復措置は、世界経済の見通しをさらに不透明にし、市場の不安定性に対するヘッジとして金の魅力を強化している。

ドル安とFRBの利下げ予想が金を支える

米ドルは勢いを掴むのに苦労しており、金価格をさらに支えている。トレーダーたちは今後の米国の非農業部門雇用者数（NFP）レポートに注視しており、これがFRBの次の政策動向を左右する可能性がある。

民間部門の雇用成長は7ヶ月で最も低い水準に落ち込み、経済を支えるためにFRBがさらなる利下げに傾くかもしれないという推測を引き起こしている。しかし、米国のサービス部門での意外な反発は経済の回復力の兆候を示しており、FRBの意思決定プロセスを複雑にする可能性がある。

テクニカル分析

金（XAU/USD）は$2,924.17で取引されており、今回のセッションで0.21%上昇している。価格は$2,894.40の安値をテストした後、急激に反発し$2,929.94へと向かっている。これは現在、最も近い抵抗レベルとして機能している。移動平均（5、10、30）は統合を示しており、価格動向は重要なレベルの周りで安定している。MACDはプラスに転じていることから、強気の勢いが徐々に高まっていることを示唆している。

さらなる上昇のためには、$2,930を超えるブレイクアウトがあれば$2,940 – $2,950をテストする可能性があり、ここで売り手が再出現するかもしれない。下位では、$2,894でのサポートは堅固に維持されており、このレベルを下回ると$2,880に向かって下落する可能性がある。

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