Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

要点：

• CL-OIL (WTI原油) は7週連続で下落し、2023年11月以来の長い連続下落となりました。
• 金曜日にトランプ大統領がロシアへの制裁を脅かしたことを受けて、価格は一時68.20ドルに上昇しました。
• サウジアラムコが3ヶ月ぶりにアジアの原油価格を引き下げ、供給に関する懸念が増しました。

CL-OILは経済と供給の懸念により下落

CL-OIL（WTI原油）は月曜日の早朝、1バレルあたり$66.53に下落し、米国が課した関税が世界的な燃料需要と経済成長を抑制する可能性に関する懸念が続いています。

テクニカル分析

WTI原油（CL-OIL）は0.79%下落し、$67.057で始まり、$66.395で終わりました。価格は変動があり、$68.120の高値に達し、$66.500の安値にまで下がり、弱気圧力が増加していることを示しました。

移動平均（5、10、30）は混合信号を示しており、短期平均が長期平均を下回って交差し、弱気の勢いを強調しています。MACD（12,26,9）ヒストグラムは負のままですが中立に向かってトレンドし、弱気圧力の低下を示唆しています。

即時サポートは$65.58で、レジスタンスは$68.20です。レジスタンスを超えた回復はさらなる上昇を引き起こす可能性がありますが、サポートを下回ると下落が拡大する可能性があります。

地政学的および供給要因がボラティリティを加える

価格は金曜日に短命な回復を見せ、米国のドナルド・トランプ大統領がウクライナとの平和を確保できなければロシアに対して制裁を強化すると脅した後、$68.20に達しました。しかし、トレーダーはロシアのエネルギーに対する制裁が緩和される可能性があるため、引き続き慎重です。

一方、OPEC+は4月からの計画された生産拡大を維持し、サウジアラムコはアジア市場向けに原油価格を引き下げ、十分な供給に対する懸念を強化し、市場のセンチメントをさらに悪化させました。

市場の見通し

トレーダーは、米国の貿易政策とロシアに関する地政学的緊張の進展に注意を払うべきであり、これらがCL-OILの価格動向の主要な要因となります。サポートは$65.50〜$66.00の範囲であり、上向きレジスタンスは金曜日の高値$68.20近くに位置する可能性が高いです。

トレーディングを始めましょう – ここをクリックしてVT Markets口座を開設

要点:

• Nikkei 225が0.3%上昇し、37,116.15で取引を終了；Topixもわずかに上昇。
• 上昇はウォールストリートを反映しているが、依然として米国の貿易政策不確実性の中で取引者は円高が市場の上昇余地を制限している。
• 日本は1月に経常収支赤字を報告；実質賃金が前年同月比1.8%減少。
• テクノロジーセクターが上昇を牽引し、全体的な市場センチメントを後押しした。

日本株が回復、円高が懸念材料

日本のNikkei 225はわずかに上昇し、37,116.15で取引を終了した。これは金曜日のウォールストリートからのポジティブなシグナルを追ったものであり、トランプ大統領の下での米国の貿易政策の変動性の中で取引者は依然として慎重であった。

五ヶ月高の水準で推移する円高は、市場、とりわけ輸出に依存する株式には課題となっている。

テクニカル分析

Nikkei 225は0.09%下落し、37,116.15で取引を終了し、開幕時の37,148.00から値を下げた。インデックスは37,145.65まで上昇し、36,687.65まで下落し、わずかなベア圧力を示した。

移動平均（MA 5,10,30）は混合トレンドを示しており、最近の下落の後に価格が回復を試みている。MACD（12,26,9）ヒストグラムはプラスに転じつつあり、モメンタムの潜在的なシフトを示唆している。

重要な支持線は36,455.15であり、抵抗線は37,457.15として見られる。抵抗を上回る突破があれば上昇が拡大する可能性がある一方、37,000を維持できないと新たな売圧につながる可能性がある。

経済データは国内の圧力を示す

日本は1月に経常収支赤字を記録したが、これは二年ぶりのことであり、輸入が輸出を大幅に上回った。

一方で、インフレ調整後の実質賃金が前年同月比で1.8%減少し、二ヶ月のプラスの流れを逆転させ、国内消費の強さについて疑問を投げかけた。

それでも、テクノロジー株の堅調なパフォーマンスが市場を支え、ディスコ（+2.2%）、レーザーテック（+2.6%）、アドバンテスト（+0.9%）が含まれる。

市場の見通し

トレーダーは通貨の動きや米国の貿易の発展を注意深く監視する必要がある。円高が続けば、日本株のさらなる上昇を抑制する可能性がある一方、貿易政策の明確化が市場の信頼を再活性化させるかもしれない。

トレーディングを始めましょう – ここをクリックしてVT Markets口座を開設

The USDJPY is declining as risk aversion grows, with stock markets facing pressure and bond yields decreasing. The 10-year yield has fallen by 5 basis points, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5.7 basis points.

Equity markets are also weakening, with the NASDAQ down by 1.63% and the S&P 500 declining by 1.23%. On the technical side, USDJPY has dropped below a significant swing area between 147.21 and 147.34, with the next key support identified at the 61.8% retracement level from September’s rally, positioned at 146.94. A sustained movement below this level may suggest a more negative technical outlook.

The decline in USDJPY reflects a growing sense of caution in financial markets. Investors typically move towards safer assets when uncertainty rises, and we see that happening now. Stock markets are under pressure, and at the same time, bond yields are falling. Lower yields indicate stronger demand for bonds, which often corresponds with a risk-off approach from investors. The 10-year yield is down by 5 basis points, while the more short-term focused 2-year yield has fallen slightly more, showing a 5.7 basis point decrease.

Equities are feeling the strain as well. The NASDAQ, which leans towards technology stocks, has dropped by 1.63%, while the S&P 500 is lower by 1.23%. Selling pressure continues to be apparent, and if this persists, it could reinforce the broader aversion to risk.

From a technical perspective, USDJPY has now moved below an area that previously acted as support between 147.21 and 147.34. This signals growing weakness, as failure to hold above these levels suggests sellers are gaining control. The next line to watch is the 61.8% retracement from September’s rally, located at 146.94. Given how widely followed this retracement level is among market participants, a breach below it could trigger further downside movement.

If downward momentum strengthens, we may see additional technical selling from traders who rely on these key levels for their strategies. This kind of positioning can create sharper movements, particularly if broader risk sentiment remains weak. On the other hand, if buyers step in around current levels, there may be an effort to stabilise price action. However, that would largely depend on whether broader market conditions allow for it.

For now, the tone in financial markets remains cautious. The reaction in stocks and bonds underscores this, and the technical break in USDJPY aligns with that sentiment. If this trend continues, it would not be surprising to see more defensive positioning across asset classes.

Stocks are experiencing a downturn, with the NASDAQ declining by 196.47 points (1.09%) to a level of 17,872. The S&P 500 has decreased by 53.5 points (0.94%), now at 5,685.

The S&P 500 is moving further away from its 200-day moving average of 5,732.70. The NASDAQ is set to close below its 50-week moving average for the first time since March 2023.

This decline marks the NASDAQ’s third consecutive weekly decrease, down 5.15% this week. The S&P 500 has also recorded three weeks of consecutive losses, currently down 4.61%.

Market Momentum Shift

These declines highlight a change in momentum. Markets do not move in straight lines, but patterns emerge when volatility increases, and recent weeks have demonstrated that. The NASDAQ breaking below its 50-week moving average signifies more than a temporary pullback. Since March 2023, buyers have defended this level, suggesting that sentiment has shifted. A breach of this kind often encourages further selling, as traders who previously relied on this as an entry point begin to exit.

The S&P 500 distancing itself from its 200-day moving average reinforces the lack of buying strength. This isn’t a minor fluctuation—it extends a pattern of sellers pressuring prices lower. When major indices repeatedly fail to hold key technical thresholds, the argument for a short-term recovery weakens.

Weekly trends matter. A single red week can be dismissed as normal market action, but three in a row suggest larger forces at play. The NASDAQ’s 5.15% drop this week is not an isolated occurrence. The S&P 500’s 4.61% loss mirrors that weakness, further emphasizing that downward pressure is widespread.

We must also pay attention to volume. A decline supported by higher-than-normal trading activity signals conviction behind the move. If institutions are reducing exposure, rallies may struggle. If volume is lacking, the selling could be less durable. Understanding this distinction helps avoid reacting too soon.

Sentiment alone does not dictate market direction. Interest rates, economic data, and corporate earnings cannot be ignored. Market participants anticipating a rebound must ask what has changed. Buying after notable declines is common, but without a shift in the factors driving the sell-off, such attempts can be premature.

Key Support Levels

Watching how indices behave around support levels can provide clarity. A recovery that lacks momentum may only serve as a temporary pause before further declines. Conversely, a sharp move upward with strong participation could indicate renewed confidence.

There is no single factor determining where prices will settle, but patterns, volume, and external catalysts all shape expectations. The next few weeks will determine whether this is a passing dip or something deeper.

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ECB’s Centeno stated that the economy is nearing the end of the current inflationary cycle. He confirmed that rate cuts will persist until inflation reaches the designated target.

The ECB’s latest projections indicate headline inflation at 2.3% for 2025, 1.9% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. The increase for 2025 is attributed to stronger energy price movements.

Inflation Forecast Breakdown

Excluding energy and food, inflation forecasts are 2.2% for 2025, 2.0% for 2026, and 1.9% for 2027. The current average remains above the CPI target of 2.0%, so convergence has not yet been achieved.

Centeno’s remarks suggest the European Central Bank will continue lowering rates for the foreseeable future. Policy adjustments will aim to bring inflation in line with the target, though this process may take several years. Recent predictions reflect this, with inflation not expected to hit 2% consistently until 2026.

Fresh estimates for next year show inflation slightly above this level, primarily due to movements in energy markets. This means external cost pressures are still playing a role, which could introduce some volatility. However, when excluding energy and food, projections are lower, meaning underlying trends may be moving in the desired direction. That being said, numbers remain marginally off target, reinforcing why rate reductions are set to continue.

Policy Adjustments And Market Reactions

For traders analysing price movements, expectations around policy shifts remain clear. If projections hold, rate adjustments will follow a path aimed at achieving price stability. While current levels suggest inflation is moderating, the ECB has made it clear that policy will stay accommodative until full convergence occurs.

Understanding these shifts allows for better positioning in the weeks ahead. Inflation expectations set by the ECB establish a framework for possible rate decisions, influencing how markets react. By paying close attention to how actual inflation progresses relative to forecasts, any deviations in pricing trends can present new opportunities.

Policymakers have not indicated any abrupt changes, so adjustments will likely be gradual. The pace depends on how quickly inflation aligns with targets. Given that energy prices remain unpredictable, this element must be factored into short-term expectations. While broader trends suggest a downward trajectory, external factors mean vigilance is still required.

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Russian President Putin stated he is prepared to agree on a truce in Ukraine, subject to certain conditions. This offer was made during discussions last month in Saudi Arabia between senior Russian and American officials.

An agreement on halting hostilities will rely on a clear understanding of the principles that will underpin the final peace accord. Russia will focus on defining the parameters of any mission, including which nations will take part.

Impact On Oil Prices

Following this announcement, oil prices fell, currently trading at $67.19, having previously reached a high of $68.20 before declining.

This statement from Putin means Russia is open to ending the conflict, but only if specific terms are met. The mention of a final peace accord suggests that Moscow aims to shape how any agreement is structured, particularly regarding international involvement. Discussions in Saudi Arabia indicate that negotiations are happening, although details remain scarce.

Market response was immediate. Oil prices took a downward turn, reflecting traders’ expectations that reduced geopolitical tensions could ease supply concerns. Prices had climbed to $68.20 but later dropped to $67.19, showing a shift in sentiment as traders reassessed risks. The decline suggests that prior gains were, at least in part, driven by uncertainty around future conflict-related disruptions.

For those navigating price movements, this should highlight how political decisions can swiftly alter positions. If peace talks gain momentum or concrete steps are taken towards an agreement, further movement in commodities is likely. Conversely, any setback could trigger sharp reversals. With new developments appearing at short notice, maintaining awareness of diplomatic shifts will be necessary.

Broader Financial Reactions

Beyond energy markets, broader financial instruments could react as well. Currency pairs connected to oil-exporting economies may exhibit heightened volatility. Meanwhile, bonds and equities sensitive to risk sentiment could move depending on whether tensions ease or escalate. Monitoring official statements, rather than relying solely on initial headlines, will be essential for understanding how events are likely to unfold.

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Federal Reserve President John Williams stated there are no indications of inflation expectations becoming unsettled. He noted that these expectations have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Additionally, Williams pointed out that data reflects short-term inflation expectations similar to those prior to the inflation surge. He refrained from discussing monetary policy or the economic outlook during his speech.

Inflation Expectations Remain Stable

Williams has made it clear that inflation expectations remain stable, returning to where they were before the pandemic disrupted economic conditions. This is a critical point. If expectations had shown signs of drifting upward, it could have indicated deeper inflationary pressures that might require a more forceful response from policymakers. Instead, Williams conveyed that both short-term and long-term inflation expectations are in line with historical norms.

This stability suggests that businesses and consumers are not anticipating disruptive price changes, which could otherwise fuel further inflation. When people expect higher prices, they tend to adjust their behaviour—businesses raise their prices pre-emptively, and workers demand higher wages. That cycle can make inflation harder to control. Williams’ remarks imply that those risks are not materialising.

By choosing not to discuss monetary policy, Williams avoided signalling any potential direction from the Federal Reserve. That omission leaves markets to interpret incoming economic data without additional guidance. It also suggests that officials remain focused on available evidence rather than committing prematurely to any course of action.

Clarity For Financial Markets

For those navigating price movements in financial markets, this steadiness in expectations provides a degree of clarity. The absence of shifting inflation concerns means fewer reasons for sudden changes in rate projections. While that doesn’t eliminate all uncertainty, it does reduce the likelihood of abrupt moves in policy direction based on inflation fears alone.

The next few weeks will bring new data that may reinforce or challenge this outlook. Until then, Williams’ comments offer reassurance that inflation expectations remain contained.

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US trade advisor Peter Navarro announced on CNBC that US auto companies have committed to moving their supply chains back to the United States. He mentioned that reciprocal tariffs will aim to establish a uniform tariff rate for each country, considering both tariffs and non-tariff measures.

In related news, President Trump postponed the tariffs on automobiles from Canada following talks with major automakers. Trump noted on Truth Social that the head of the United Auto Workers of America suggested that tariffs are necessary to address what he termed as long-term abuse of the US, citing the closure of 90,000 factories and plants since NAFTA was enacted.

Focus On Domestic Manufacturing

Navarro’s statement reinforces the White House’s intent to prioritise domestic manufacturing. This signals an effort to reduce reliance on global supply networks, particularly in the automotive sector. The referenced pledge by major vehicle producers suggests movement towards restructuring existing operations, which could reshape sourcing strategies over time. The immediate effects remain unclear, but implications for procurement costs and assembly line logistics cannot be ignored.

Trump’s decision to delay auto tariffs on Canada follows discussions with company executives and labour representatives. The mention of factory shutdowns since the introduction of NAFTA adds weight to the argument that policymakers will continue pushing for trade barriers to protect domestic production. While the timeline for potential future tariffs remains open, the message is straightforward—trade negotiations will not ease pressure on foreign manufacturers anytime soon.

The mention of reciprocal tariffs introduces another consideration. Matching levy structures with competing nations would change cost dynamics for exporters and importers alike. If implemented as described, pricing adjustments could follow, influencing market positions across multiple industries. Businesses reliant on overseas components may need to reconsider cost strategies in anticipation of further measures.

Impact On Market And Investments

Short-term shifts in sentiment are likely as investors digest how companies react to these policy moves. Adjustments in supply arrangements come with transitional costs, while geopolitical responses could add further unpredictability. The expectation of continued trade intervention suggests that caution remains warranted when assessing positions influenced by policy developments. It remains essential to monitor how North American firms adapt to possible constraints, as any realignment could trigger broader effects elsewhere.

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Trump is scheduled to speak at 11 am ET, or shortly thereafter. The focus of his speech may involve discussions around a Bitcoin strategic reserve.

Following previous announcements, Bitcoin experienced a quick rebound to $89,000.

Potential Timing Delays

Despite the scheduled time, past occurrences suggest Trump may not adhere strictly to the timetable.

Reports indicate that discussions regarding a capital gains exemption for cryptocurrencies will not proceed as anticipated.

This means traders need to be careful about expecting an immediate market response at exactly 11 am ET. If history is any guide, the timing could drift, so positioning too early might expose trades to unnecessary volatility. Sudden price movements may occur before or after remarks, depending on how leaks, expectations, or broader sentiment develop in the hours prior.

The sharp move to $89,000 following earlier statements shows how reactive markets can be to potential policy shifts. If today’s speech follows a similar pattern, there could be a rapid adjustment in pricing once details emerge. However, the market might have already priced in parts of the narrative, which could lead to either exaggerated swings or more tempered reactions.

Market Considerations

With reports now confirming that a capital gains exemption will not move forward as expected, some prior assumptions embedded in valuations may need to be reconsidered. Market participants who positioned for favourable tax changes may have to unwind positions, introducing an element of repositioning pressure.

The attention on a Bitcoin reserve policy could draw increased speculative activity, particularly if clear commitments are made. If the details are ambiguous or non-committal, traders should prepare for potential indecision in price action. Any comparisons to existing sovereign holdings of gold or other reserves might influence how markets interpret the likelihood of such a move materialising.

Timing trades around political events of this nature requires weighing both the substance of the announcement and the way markets react to incomplete or speculative information. If past events offer insight, positioning purely on expectations without adaptability carries heightened risk.

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