China will lower its Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) at a suitable time, according to official sources. The China Securities Journal has suggested that there may be two cuts to the RRR in 2020, a prediction echoed in various reports.

The Reserve Requirement Ratio is a regulatory measure that affects the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve. By adjusting this ratio, the government aims to manage economic activity and ensure liquidity in the financial system.

Effects Of Lowering The Reserve Requirement Ratio

Lowering the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) frees up capital for banks, allowing them to lend more. This influences borrowing costs, credit availability, and overall economic conditions. When reserves are reduced, financial institutions have greater flexibility, which can spur investment and spending. Such measures are often introduced to support economic momentum, especially when external pressures or domestic constraints arise.

Sun Guofeng, representing the central bank’s monetary policy department, affirmed that adjustments would be made at an appropriate moment. Statements like these indicate that authorities are preparing to act but will time their moves with care. We have seen similar approaches before—when economic uncertainties develop, liquidity management becomes an essential tool. Policy decisions of this nature typically aim to maintain stability while encouraging growth.

A reduction in reserves usually affects interest rates, as additional liquidity tends to ease funding conditions. The extent depends on how much capital is released and how market participants react. Lower borrowing costs can increase demand for loans, providing companies with resources for expansion and strengthening household purchasing power. However, if applied at the wrong time or with insufficient control, excessive liquidity can lead to unintended consequences. Managing these risks remains an ongoing focus for regulators.

Lian Ping, formerly of the Bank of Communications, indicated that potential adjustments in the coming months could complement other economic policies. His remarks align with previous central bank actions, which have often incorporated a mix of liquidity tools and interest rate changes to achieve broader objectives. With external conditions shifting and internal factors at play, authorities will be weighing their next steps carefully.

Global Influences On Policy Decisions

Global conditions also shape these decisions. External trade relationships, financial market movements, and shifting growth patterns influence domestic policy choices. We have observed this before—policymakers assess both short-term pressures and longer-term priorities before implementing adjustments. While RRR cuts serve as a tool to inject liquidity, they are usually paired with measures to balance growth and control risks. Financial institutions must navigate these changes while aligning their strategies with the central bank’s direction.

It is worth noting that past reductions in the RRR have varied in both scale and frequency. Some adjustments have been broad, affecting all banks, while others have been targeted to support specific sectors or institutions. The impact depends on how funds are directed—whether towards businesses, infrastructure projects, or consumer lending. Authorities have stressed the importance of guiding credit towards productive sectors while limiting excessive speculation.

Expectations surrounding monetary policy shifts often influence market behaviour before formal announcements are made. When hints of upcoming changes emerge, financial participants adjust their positions accordingly. The timing, scale, and messaging accompanying any move will be closely examined. Market reactions will reflect confidence levels in broader policy objectives.

Authorities maintain a balancing act between fostering growth and ensuring financial stability. While an RRR adjustment provides immediate support, long-term economic health depends on complementary strategies. Markets will continue analysing central bank signals for insights into upcoming steps.

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要点:

• USDXは0.82%下落し, 105.551で閉じ, ほぼ1週間ぶりの最低水準を記録しました。
• 関税の緊張はドルの需要を促進できませんでした, トレーダーは新しい米国の貿易政策による経済リスクを考慮しました。

USドル指数（USDX）は水曜日に下落を続け、0.82%減少して105.551となり、米国の中国、メキシコ、カナダに対する関税の影響を再検討する投資家の姿勢が反映されました。貿易戦争の脅威が続いているにもかかわらずドルは弱含みとなり、主要通貨全体に広範な売り圧力が見られました。

ドルは106.424の intraday最高値から105.454の最低値に下落し、2月下旬以来の急激な下降を記録しました。これは、米国の関税のエスカレーションがドルの安全資産としての需要を引き起こすという初期の期待とは対照的です。

関税の不確実性がドルに影響

米国のトランプ大統領が議会での演説で、相互関税の計画を確認しました。貿易相手国が新しい米国政策に従わない場合は、4月2日までにさらなるエスカレーションを誓いました。しかし、市場の反応は混在しました。

トレーダーはドルから離れました。米国の成長の鈍化やインフレリスクに関する懸念が優先されました。 中国の即時報復やカナダの対抗措置の計画は不確実性を高め、世界の貿易フローが弱まるリスクを引き上げました。

ドルが強化されるどころか、USDXは広範な売り圧力がかかり、105.45の支持線近くに押し上げられました。これは、トレーダーがドルを安全資産として求めるのではなく、経済リスクを価格に織り込んでいることを示唆しています。

関税の懸念を超えて、ドルはも緩やかな経済データにも圧力をかけられています。 米国の工場出荷価格は3年ぶりの高水準に急増し, インフレへの懸念が高まっています。 関税による供給網の混乱は生産コストにさらなる圧力をかけ、連邦準備制度の柔軟性を制限する可能性があります。

ドルの弱さは連邦準備制度の利下げ期待の高まりを反映しています。トレーダーは現在、7月までに緩和の60%の確率を織り込んでいます。

USDXにさらなる下落の可能性は？

USドル指数（USDX）は下落を続け、106.00を下回り、弱気のトレンドを確認しました。105.45が今や重要な支持線として機能しています。トレーダーはドルが安定できるか、さらなる下落が続くかを注視しています。105.45を下回ると、105.00に向けて深い下落の扉が開かれる可能性があります。

技術的指標はこの弱気の見通しを支持しており、MACDは強い下落のモメンタムを示しています。これは、売り手が支配的であることを示唆しています。センチメントに変化が現れない限り、ドルは引き続き圧力を受ける可能性が高く、トレーダーは次の経済データの発表を市場のきっかけとして待っています。

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要点:

• キウイ（NZDUSD）は0.56644でオープンし、0.56587でクローズし、高値は0.56682、安値は0.55957でした。
• 米国のメキシコ、カナダ、中国への関税がセンチメントに影響を与え、貿易戦争の懸念が高まっています。
• ニュージーランド準備銀行（RBNZ）の総裁アドリアン・オーが早期辞任を発表し、不確実性を煽る。
• 米国の経済データに注目が集まり、ADP雇用報告と非農業部門雇用者数が期待されています。

貿易リスクの高まりでNZDUSDが圧力を受ける

ニュージーランドドル（NZDUSD）は水曜日に0.56587まで下落し、拡大する世界の貿易緊張により、輸出依存の通貨に圧力がかかりました。

トレーダーのセンチメントは、米国がメキシコとカナダからの輸入品に25%の関税を課し、中国製品への関税を20%に倍増した後、慎重なものとなりました。これにより、即時の報復措置が促され、より広範な貿易紛争への恐怖感が高まったのです。

テクニカル分析

NZDUSDは0.10%下落し、0.56587でクローズしました。オープンは0.56644で、高値は0.56682、安値は0.56368でした。

移動平均（MA 5,10,30）は上向きのバイアスを示し、短期のMAが長期の平均を上回っています。MACD（12,26,9）のヒストグラムはプラスに転じ、強気のMomentumが構築されつつあることを示唆しています。

主要なサポートは0.55957で、直近のレジスタンスは0.56682です。レジスタンスを上抜けると上昇が続く可能性がありますが、調整が入ると下位のサポートレベルをテストすることになるかもしれません。

RBNZ総裁の驚きの辞任がボラティリティを加速

国内では、ニュージーランド準備銀行総裁アドリアン・オーが2期目を3年残して辞任を発表し、不確実性が漂っています。

副総裁クリスチャン・ホークスビーが3月31日までは代理総裁として就任します。このリーダーシップの変化はリスクをさらに加えますが、インフレは抑制されており、経済成長は期待されています。

市場の見通し

NZDUSDトレーダーは今後の米国の雇用データを注意深く監視すべきです。これにはADP雇用報告や金曜日の非農業部門雇用者数が含まれ、連邦準備制度の金利の見通しに影響を与える可能性があります。経済の弱さの兆候があれば、金利引き下げの期待が高まり、NZDUSDにいくらかの救済をもたらすかもしれません。

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China’s finance ministry plans to enhance fiscal spending, with a proposed 7.2% increase in defence expenditure. The ministry acknowledges that external environmental changes are posing challenges to the economy.

Maintaining a balanced budget in 2025 will be pressured, despite revenue growth from the recovery. However, obstacles like insufficient domestic demand and slow growth in key tax-contributing industries may hinder government revenues.

Uncertainty In Foreign Trade

Uncertainty in foreign trade further complicates the situation. To address these issues, China aims to implement counter-cyclical adjustments and improve its fiscal spending structure, adopting proactive and robust policies as it accelerates fiscal expenditure.

Beijing’s strategy suggests it recognises the difficulty of stabilising economic momentum amid external pressures. We see that rising defence spending reflects both geopolitical caution and a broader emphasis on national security. With this allocation, fiscal room tightens elsewhere, requiring more deliberate choices about where funds flow.

Government revenues are expected to grow, but at a pace that may not be enough to ease budget constraints. Domestic demand remains weak, limiting consumption-driven tax inflows. Meanwhile, industries that contribute heavily to fiscal income are facing headwinds, slowing potential gains from corporate tax collection. This means that despite an overall economic recovery, budgetary pressure remains high.

Foreign trade introduces additional uncertainty. Shifting global supply chains and trade policy adjustments could disrupt export-driven revenue streams. As a response, Beijing aims to use counter-cyclical adjustments—policies designed to offset economic volatility by modifying fiscal expenditures and tax policies accordingly. This approach suggests the government wants to mitigate downturn risks while keeping growth stable.

Planned Fiscal Expenditure

With these factors in mind, planned fiscal expenditure will likely lean towards initiatives that offer measured economic support. Stabilisation efforts will focus on sustaining employment levels and preventing sharp declines in industrial output. The challenge lies in ensuring that this fiscal push does not strain long-term debt sustainability. The need for robust financing mechanisms becomes apparent.

Those watching these developments should assess how increased spending influences broader market stability. How authorities balance fiscal expansion with financial discipline will shape near-term opportunities. Fiscal manoeuvres tend to ripple through multiple sectors, affecting expectations for liquidity and borrowing conditions. If domestic demand continues to underperform, additional policy tweaks may follow.

Markets will be watching closely.

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Market Stability Amid Leadership Change

Orr’s decision to step down comes at a moment when inflation has returned to the central bank’s preferred range, and the economy is showing resilience following the pandemic-induced turbulence. Stability in the financial system appears intact, though long-term planning remains a focus within the institution. Maintaining this stability will likely be at the forefront of discussions in the coming months.

Hawkesby will hold the role temporarily until the end of March, marking a brief transition before an interim appointment is made. With the finance minister set to name this temporary replacement on 1 April, based on the central bank’s board recommendations, this appointment will guide policy direction until a permanent successor takes charge. A six-month term provides enough time to ensure an orderly process without market uncertainty persisting for too long.

Immediate market reaction to Orr’s departure has been muted, with the New Zealand dollar holding steady against its US counterpart. However, pricing in currency and interest rate markets often takes time to fully adjust as traders assess both the interim leadership and policy continuity. Investors accustomed to stability under Orr may wait for signals from Hawkesby or the forthcoming appointee before making any bold moves.

For those with exposure to New Zealand’s monetary policy, stability in early market reaction does not necessarily indicate that pricing will remain unchanged. Even though inflation is within the desired range, shifts in leadership can introduce new interpretations of economic conditions. Any adjustment in tone or forward guidance during this transitional period could prompt reactions from currency traders and those positioned in interest rate derivatives.

Implications For Monetary Policy

Given that a temporary appointment is less than a month away, speculation may increase regarding who will step in and how much continuity they will aim to preserve. If market participants detect any variation in the bank’s approach, particularly in how it manages inflation and supports economic growth, this could influence expectations around future rate settings. The response to future policy meetings under transitional leadership will be closely watched for any minor shifts in language or emphasis.

It is worth acknowledging that the bank’s overall stance remains consistent for now, but oversight during leadership changes has led to volatility in other countries in the past. If the temporary appointee makes comments that differ from prior statements or appears to favour a different approach, investors could react accordingly. Central bank transitions do not always lead to immediate shifts in market direction, yet sentiment can adjust based on how incoming figures communicate existing policies.

We recognise the importance of monitoring statements from Hawkesby before April, then assessing the stance of the interim replacement. Any divergence from Orr’s messaging could influence sentiment in ways that are not necessarily reflected in short-term market movements right now. Policymakers often seek to reassure markets during transitions to avoid unnecessary fluctuations, though subtle differences in approach can become clearer over time.

Market participants may also assess how the finance minister approaches this appointment. A selection that aligns with past decision-making could support continuity, whereas a signal of a policy shift could invite re-evaluation from investors. Movements in yields and exchange rates in the coming weeks will provide insights into how expectations evolve.

With inflation finally back to target, some may question what this means for rate settings over the next year. Stable policy direction in the short term may be anticipated, but leadership changes often bring a re-examination of priorities. If any new statements suggest a different view on inflation risks or economic strength, calls for rate adjustment could emerge sooner than expected.

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要点:

• JPYが150ドルに向かって弱まる、最近の高値から退くが、タカ派的なBOJの発言にもかかわらず。
• BOJ副総裁がさらなる利上げの示唆、ただし金融情勢は緩和的なまま。
• 貿易緊張が円に圧力をかける、アメリカのカナダ、メキシコ、中国への関税が経済的不確実性を助長。

円が後退、BOJの慎重なアプローチがタカ派的期待を萎えさせる

日本円は水曜日にドルに対して150に向かって弱まった、5ヵ月ぶりの強い水準から後退した。BOJ副総裁の内田篤人のタカ派的な発言にもかかわらず、トレーダーは金融引き締めのペースに懐疑的であった。

内田は、経済予測が維持されればBOJは金利をさらに引き上げるだろうと再確認し、超緩和政策からの最終的な退出の期待を強めた。しかし、彼はまた、金融情勢は非常に緩和的なままであり、BOJは日本国債の保有減少を制限していると警告した。

この矛盾した立場が円の上昇を逆転させる結果となり、マーケットは内田の発言を、引き締めが徐々に進んでおり、データに依存することの示唆と解釈した。

貿易緊張が円の下方向圧力を増加させる

外的には、円は悪化する貿易関係からさらなる売り圧力に直面した。アメリカは火曜日にカナダ、メキシコ、中国に対して新しい関税を実施した、影響を受けた国々からの報復措置を引き起こした。

関税はリスク感情を抑制し、トレーダーは円の安全資産としての役割を再評価することを促した。日本の輸出主導の経済は脆弱なままで、長引く貿易の遮断が成長と企業の収益にリスクをもたらす。

テクニカル分析

USD/JPYペアは0.13%の穏やかな上昇を示している、価格は149.708で始まり149.910で閉じた。ペアは150.183の高値を試した後にやや後退し、149.579の安値を記録した。

写真: USD/JPYが150.18の抵抗を試す。ブルなモメンタムが構築されている。

移動平均（5、10、30）は回復を示唆している、価格がそれらの上にトレンドしており、継続的なブルなモメンタムを示している。MACDのヒストグラムは安定しており、売り圧力の減少と gainsの潜在的な継続の兆候を示している。

BOJの政策立案者が慎重な姿勢を維持する中、円のトレーダーはドル150における次の重要なサポートレベルを注意深く見守っている。150を越えた場合、BOJの介入についての憶測が引き起こされ、円の取引にボラティリティを加える可能性がある。市場参加者は今後のBOJの議事録とアメリカの経済データを監視し、金融政策の期待に変化をもたらし、USD/JPYのモメンタムに影響を与える可能性がある。

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Singapore’s retail sales experienced a month-on-month increase of 2.4% in January, a notable recovery from the previous decline of -1.5%. This data suggests a positive shift in consumer spending behaviour.

In the foreign exchange market, the EUR/USD pair climbed toward 1.0650, benefiting from the US Dollar’s downward trend. The market’s focus remained on forthcoming US economic data.

Gbp Usd And Gold Prices

The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains, trading close to 1.2790 amid concerns over US economic growth. Gold prices held above $2,900, with market participants anticipating new information regarding US tariffs and employment data.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin stabilised around $87,600, with Ethereum and Ripple showing signs of recovery. The US has implemented various tariffs, including 25% on Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on China.

Singapore’s retail figures point towards stronger consumer activity, reversing the previous month’s dip. This momentum could indicate improving sentiment and economic resilience. If the trend persists, it may influence expectations for broader economic growth.

In currency markets, the Euro gained against the US Dollar, nearing 1.0650. With the Dollar facing downward pressure, attention remains on forthcoming US economic data. Any unexpected readings could alter near-term moves, particularly if inflation or labour market figures diverge from forecasts.

Sterling edged higher, hovering near 1.2790. Persistent concerns around US economic expansion appear to have weighed on the Dollar, supporting the Pound’s movement. While the gains were contained, market participants will closely monitor upcoming Bank of England comments and UK economic releases.

Bitcoin And Tariff Developments

Gold prices have remained firm above $2,900, reflecting sustained investor interest. Markets are awaiting new details on US trade policy, particularly regarding tariffs, alongside employment data. Any shifts in policy or labour market strength could moderate or extend gold’s performance.

Bitcoin steadied at approximately $87,600, with Ethereum and Ripple also demonstrating recovery signs. Traders have kept a close watch on tariff measures, which now apply at different rates, including 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. These developments could feed into broader economic and market expectations, setting the stage for further movement in commodities and risk assets.

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China aims to maintain a stable yuan exchange rate, with the People’s Bank of China effectively managing this. The country has set an economic growth target of ‘around 5%’ for 2025, which has garnered considerable attention.

Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2025 is set at approximately 2%. In 2025, 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special T bonds will be issued, increasing from 1 trillion in 2024.

Proactive Fiscal Policy

A more proactive fiscal policy is planned, with an emphasis on stability within property and stock markets. The consumer trade-in stimulus remains at 300 billion yuan, reduced from previous expectations of 800 billion.

This approach underscores China’s commitment to maintaining economic stability while carefully navigating monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China has continued to manage the yuan closely, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations that could disrupt financial markets. A growth target of around 5% suggests a balance between ambition and realism, recognising external pressures while maintaining confidence in domestic expansion.

The 2% Consumer Price Index target indicates that authorities expect manageable inflation levels. This aligns with the broader goal of ensuring stability in consumer purchasing power while avoiding excessive monetary tightening. Inflation rates that stray too far from this benchmark could prompt adjustments in policy tools, with authorities likely to intervene if conditions warrant.

The decision to raise ultra-long special T bond issuance to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025, up from 1 trillion the previous year, signals a strategic move towards bolstering government spending. This increase suggests a continued effort to support long-term infrastructure and economic activity without abruptly shifting fiscal direction. Given recent concerns in real estate and equities, authorities have made clear their preference for a steady approach rather than sudden policy shifts.

With fiscal policy set to be more proactive, there is a clear emphasis on keeping financial markets stable while maintaining consumer and investor confidence. Policymakers remain mindful of previous volatility in property and stock sectors, favouring measures that reinforce broader economic health rather than risk fueling uncertainty.

Consumer Trade In Stimulus

The consumer trade-in stimulus, now standing at 300 billion yuan rather than the previously discussed 800 billion, reflects a more restrained approach towards direct economic intervention. While it remains a sizeable support measure, this reduction suggests a reassessment of how much stimulus is needed, likely taking into account broader fiscal policy considerations and current consumption patterns.

Those active in speculative markets should closely monitor China’s approach as authorities continue to balance economic resilience with controlled policy adjustments. The measures outlined indicate a deliberate effort to sustain growth without resorting to excessive intervention, reinforcing the need for careful assessment of near-term shifts in fiscal and monetary policy.

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Singapore’s retail sales year-on-year rose notably from -2.9% to 4.5% in January, indicating a positive shift in consumer spending.

The data illustrates an increase in demand across various sectors, contributing to the overall economic recovery.

Financial Market Movements

In related financial news, the EUR/USD pair surged 1.4%, driven by market speculation about potential changes in US tariff policies.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains stable near 1.2790, amidst concerns regarding the US economic outlook.

Gold prices are maintaining above $2,900, while Bitcoin is stabilising around $87,600, with both cryptocurrencies recovering from recent lows.

Additionally, new 25% tariffs have been imposed by the US on Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on China.

A rise from -2.9% to 4.5% in Singapore’s retail sales year-on-year suggests consumer confidence is improving. This points to higher discretionary spending, which tends to support broader economic growth. With various sectors experiencing increased demand, this also hints at a healthier business environment.

In the currency markets, the 1.4% jump in the EUR/USD pair highlights the weight traders place on potential adjustments to US trade policies. Such moves reflect expectations that tariff revisions could shift capital flows and impact corporate earnings. By contrast, Sterling’s stability around 1.2790 signals continued hesitancy, with investors digesting concerns over the US economic direction before making decisive moves.

Gold And Cryptocurrency Trends

Precious metals and digital assets remain a topic of interest, with gold holding firm above $2,900. Bitcoin, after recent setbacks, is showing resilience near $87,600. These price levels suggest that, despite volatility, traders see enduring demand. For gold, inflation and monetary policy speculation remain key drivers, while Bitcoin’s steadiness indicates the asset continues to find support following its recent downturn.

Elsewhere, Washington has introduced fresh 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff targeting China. This marks a shift that could influence trade partnerships while affecting manufacturing and supply chains. For traders, heightened caution may be warranted, as these measures will likely filter through to currency and commodity markets over the next few weeks.

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