— Fed official Cook noted that economic growth is slowing, and progress on inflation may be hindered by tariffs. He indicated a greater focus on inflation risks moving upward. Cook stated that maintaining the current policy is appropriate while monitoring data and that the Fed should be patient and attentive. He mentioned that current policy is prepared to react to economic changes, and inflation data reflects the influence of tariffs. He is observing for signs that tariffs are leading to ongoing price pressures. Cook underscored the increased uncertainty from changes in the economic outlook and government policies.

Shift In Inflation Dynamics

He commented that easing inflation could enable future rate cuts, as the economy has entered a period of uncertainty. Cook’s comments suggest that the central bank is acknowledging a slowdown in the broader economy, and that inflation—though showing signs of moderation—remains exposed to upward pressures. He attributed much of this to external factors, particularly tariffs, which are now increasingly being seen as embedded in consumer prices. In other words, what may have once been considered transitory could now be feeding into sustained cost increases. That said, Cook also pointed out that current monetary policy remains well-positioned to handle fresh developments. There seems to be a wait-and-see stance, suggesting no immediate plans to either raise or lower rates. Patience, for now, appears to be the guiding strategy. Yet, the fact that he is looking for evidence of “ongoing price pressures” implies the Federal Reserve is far from convinced that inflation is fully under control.

Balancing Policy Expectations

From our perspective, this positions market participants squarely in a narrow corridor between expectations for future rate cuts and the risk that policy may have to hold firm—or even turn more restrictive—if pricing data worsens. The mere mention of tariffs triggering persistent price effects brings a new dynamic into play, notably one that isn’t driven by domestic consumption or employment cycles, but by policy decisions made abroad and at home. What stands out in Cook’s assessment is how finely balanced things have become. The machinery is running, but with unsteady oil in the gears—meaning any sharp external jolt could cause disruption. Reading between the lines, this tells us that betting on near-term rate reductions without clear disinflation would be misjudged. It also diminishes the likelihood of policy easing being brought forward purely because consumer activity dips slightly. Monetary easing hinges firmly on price stability, and not risk sentiment. 要点 モニタリングにおいて、金利スワップの価格設定と短期ガンマプロファイルの動向を追跡することが、市場イベント前にトレーダーのポジション変更の初期兆候を得ることに繋がる可能性がある。データ依存の期限ポイントに対するエクスポージャーも再評価することが賢明であり、期待がFedの慎重な姿勢と不一致になる可能性がある。 Cookが示したのは、経済がもはや予測可能な道を進んでいないということです。私たちは今、国内のスラックや過熱だけでなく、外部のショックが価格を通じて国内で増幅することを警戒している中央銀行を見ています。要するに、反応関数が変わりつつあり、インプライドがこの変化を市場が認識する前に反映し始めるかもしれません。 Cookのトーンと文脈を読んで、私たちはインフレに敏感なデリバティブ商品が今や静かに安堵ではなく、ためらいを反映していることに注目すべきです。政策当局者の慎重さは、急激な再価格設定が予告なしにやってくる可能性がある環境を示しています。

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