U.S. officials have indicated to the EU’s trade chief that President Trump may seek further concessions in ongoing trade discussions. This includes proposing a baseline tariff of 15% or more on most European goods, up from the previously discussed 10%。 The unexpected change has surprised EU negotiators and led to a tougher stance within the bloc。Germany, previously taking a softer approach, is now siding with France’s more assertive position。With an August 1 deadline approaching, EU member states are urging the European Commission to prepare strong countermeasures against U.S. companies if negotiations fail。

The Eur Usd Currency Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair remained rangebound at the start of the week。 We believe the current calm in EUR/USD is deceptive and presents a clear opportunity。One-month implied volatility for the pair is hovering near a subdued 6%、a level that does not reflect the binary risk of the fast-approaching August deadline。Traders should consider buying this cheap volatility through structures like straddles、positioning for a sharp breakout once the outcome of the talks becomes certain。 The hardening German stance is a critical development、as the United States was its largest export partner in 2023、with goods valued at over €155 billion。この直接的な露出により、DAXのようなドイツ重視の指数は、脅かされている15%の関税に特に敏感となる。私たちは、ヨーロッパの自動車および産業セクターの株式に対するプットオプションの購入を推奨する。この戦略は、2018年の米中貿易紛争での類似のエスカレーションの際に効果的であった。

Market Volatility Concerns

This uncertainty extends beyond currency markets、yet the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains at a relatively low level near 13。This suggests the broader market is underpricing the risk of a new trade war front opening up with the EU、an economy comparable in size to the U.S. Long VIX futures or call options offer an efficient hedge against the kind of systemic shock that retaliatory actions against major U.S. companies would trigger。

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