Week Ahead: Markets to focus on US CPI, PPI and ECB Rate Statement 

March 13, 2023

This week, market participants are closely monitoring the release of key economic indicators in the US, including the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Retail Sales. The Rate Statement from the European Central Bank is also expected to draw significant attention. These highly anticipated releases have the potential to cause significant fluctuations in the markets, providing valuable insights for traders to guide their decisions.

Here are key events to watch out for:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) | US (March 14)

In January 2023, the US witnessed a 0.5% month-on-month rise in consumer prices, the most in three months. 

Analysts anticipate a 0.4% increase in February.

Producer Price Index (PPI) | US (March 15)

Producer prices for final demand in the US increased 0.7% month-on-month in January 2023, the most in seven months.

Analysts expect a 0.3% increase in February.

Retail Sales | US (March 15)

Retail sales in the US unexpectedly jumped 3% month-on-month in January 2023, the biggest increase since March 2021.

For February, analysts expect a 0.2% increase.

Employment Change | Australia (March 16)

Employment in Australia unexpectedly declined by 11,500 to 13.72 million in January 2023. Meanwhile, unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 3.7% in January 2023 from December’s near five-decade low of 3.5%.

For February, analysts estimate that 51,000 jobs will be added, while unemployment rate will be at 3.6%

European Central Bank Rate Statement (March 16)

The ECB raised its interest rate by 50bps to 3% in February 2023.

Markets have fully priced in a 50bps increase this month, with a chance of a similar hike to be delivered in May, after several policymakers backed the idea that rates will have to rise higher and stay higher for some time to bring inflation back to target.

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (March 17)

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US rose to 67 in February 2023, up from the preliminary reading of 66.4, and marking the highest level since January 2022. 

Analysts anticipate that the index for this month will be in the range of 67.5 to 68.