Week ahead: All Eyes on RBNZ Rate Statement and FOMC Meeting Minutes

May 22, 2023

The financial sector is poised to closely monitor significant economic releases this week, with particular attention on RBNZ Rate Statement and FOMC Meeting Minutes. These essential reports play a critical role in guiding traders through the markets and enabling them to make well-informed decisions.

Germany, UK and US Flash Manufacturing PMI (23 May)

In April 2023, Germany’s Manufacturing PMI experienced a slight upward revision to 44.5, marking the sector’s poorest performance since May 2020. Meanwhile, the UK Manufacturing PMI was adjusted higher to 47.8, and the US Flash Manufacturing PMI saw a downward revision to 50.2, compared to March’s reading of 49.2.

For May 2023 data, due on 23 May, analysts predict German Manufacturing PMI at 43.6, UK’s at 48.8, and US’s at 50.3.

EU, UK and US Flash Services PMI (23 May)

In April 2023, US Services PMI was revised to 53.6, the year’s largest expansion, while Germany’s reached 56, its fastest growth in a year. The UK Services PMI rose to 55.9, highlighting continuous sector expansion throughout the year.

For May 2023 data, set to be released on 23 May, analysts forecast Germany’s Flash Services PMI at 56.6, UK’s at 54.3, and US’s at 53.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Statement  (24 May)

During its April meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased its official cash rate by 50bps to 5.25%, reaching its highest level since December 2008.

For the upcoming meeting on 24 May, analysts predict that the RBNZ will implement an additional 25bps hike, raising the rate to 5.5%.

UK Consumer Price Index (24 May)

The consumer price inflation rate in the UK eased to 10.1% year-on-year in March 2023 from 10.4% in February 2023.

As for the year-on-year CPI data set to be released on 24 May, analysts anticipate a further decline, projecting it to drop to 8.5%.

US FOMC Meeting Minutes (24 May)

The Fed implemented a 25bps increase in its funds rate during its meeting on 3 May, adjusting it to a range of 5%-5.25%. This adjustment represents the 10th hike.

Analysts await the release of the next FOMC Meeting Minutes on 24 May, where they expect to find indications from the Fed about the ongoing tightening cycle. They anticipate the removal of a statement sentence that suggests the need for further policy firming.

US Core PCE Price Index (26 May)

US Core PCE prices, excluding food and energy, experienced a 0.3% month-over-month increase in March 2023, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month.

The data for April 2023 is set to be released on 26 May, with analysts expecting the same growth rate as March 2023 at 0.3%.