Is Yen Affected by the G7 Consensus?

April 18, 2024

The dollar softened on Thursday, pulling back as traders digested comments from Federal Reserve officials which implied that U.S. interest rates are likely to remain restrictive. This shift in the dollar’s trajectory, after a period of consistent gains fueled by strong economic indicators and persistent inflation in the U.S., suggests that expectations for near-term rate cuts may be premature. Historically, periods of restrictive monetary policy have often led to a strengthening dollar; however, the current scenario might temper those gains slightly due to the mixed signals about future economic conditions.

Concurrently, the Japanese yen saw a momentary appreciation after Masato Kanda, Japan’s top currency diplomat, indicated that G7 finance leaders are united against excessive currency volatility. This assertion could potentially lead to more aggressive market interventions if the yen continues to weaken, especially as it flirts with a 34-year low against the dollar. A precedent for such interventions was set in 2022 when Japan spent an estimated $60 billion to shore up the yen, signaling a high level of commitment to preventing excessive currency depreciation.

Trilateral Finance Dialogue

The discussions among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea in their first trilateral finance dialogue have emphasised a close consultation on currency market conditions. This initiative underscores the concerns from Tokyo and Seoul regarding their currencies’ sharp declines and raises the possibility of joint interventions if the yen and the Korean won continue to fall against the dollar. Market participants now believe any potential interventions could be triggered should the yen breach the 155 level, adjusted from 152, with some expecting this threshold could even shift to 156.

Despite the greenback‘s slight decline on Thursday, the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six major peers, was only down by 0.08% at 105.87, retreating from a five-and-a-half-month high of 106.51 reached earlier in the week. This suggests a consolidation phase as traders re-evaluate the likelihood of the Federal Reserve beginning to cut rates later in the year rather than sooner, with market expectations now seeing cuts totalling 44 basis points, a steep drop from the 160 basis points anticipated at the start of the year.

Euro, AUD, NZD Affected?

In light of these news, the euro has showed resilience, remaining largely unchanged at $1.0676, after a 0.5% gain on Wednesday, which helped it move away from a five-month low. The sterling also posted gains, rising by 0.15% to $1.2465. These movements indicate a slight easing in the dollar’s dominance, potentially offering European currencies some breathing room if the dollar’s bullish momentum stalls.

In contrast, the Australian and New Zealand dollars presented a mixed picture. The Australian dollar was up by 0.12% against the U.S. dollar, at $0.6442, while the New Zealand dollar dipped to $0.5917 after an initial spike of 0.6% on Wednesday.

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